Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 06/11, 18:30

Prediction: Chomutov vs Slovan Velvary

Team pages: Chomutov · Slovan Velvary

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

Chomutov2.36

Slovan Velvary1.06

1X2

66% 18% 16%

Chomutov Draw Slovan Velvary

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Chomutov 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLDWWW

Slovan Velvary 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLDLLL

Head-to-head

Chomutov 1–4 Slovan Velvary (5 last)

Slovan Velvary1-0Chomutov
Chomutov3-2Slovan Velvary
Slovan Velvary3-1Chomutov
Slovan Velvary2-0Chomutov
Chomutov0-2Slovan Velvary

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chomutov 1568 · Slovan Velvary 1424

	Chomutov	Draw	Slovan Velvary
Our model	65%	20%	15%
Market	67%	17%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chomutov (rating 1568 vs 1424).
H2H favours Slovan Velvary: 4-0-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chomutov	Slovan Velvary
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 6.5	1.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.25

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.33▲	Bet365 1.33
X	5.50 → 5.25▼	Bet365 5.25
2	6.50 → 5.50▼	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:01 +6’	1.28	5.50	6.50
01:03 +6’	1.33▲	5.25▼	5.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chomutov 1–0–4 Slovan Velvary

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/25 Czechia 3. Liga	Slovan Velvary	1-0 HT 0-0	Chomutov
23/11/24 Czechia 3. Liga	Chomutov	3-2 HT 3-0	Slovan Velvary
25/08/21 Czechia Cup	Slovan Velvary	3-1 HT 2-0	Chomutov
29/02/20 Europe Friendlies	Slovan Velvary	2-0 HT 2-0	Chomutov
19/09/17 Czechia 4. Liga	Chomutov	0-2 HT 0-1	Slovan Velvary

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	13	11	0	2	45	15	33
2	Kravare	13	9	3	1	30	14	30
3	FC Vratimov	13	9	0	4	26	19	27
4	Hlucin	13	7	2	4	24	18	23
5	SK Zabreh	13	6	3	4	19	16	21
6	TJ Valasske Mezirici	13	5	5	3	27	21	20
7	SK Stonava	13	6	2	5	24	23	20
8	Opava B	13	6	1	6	29	26	19
9	Jiskra Rymarov	13	5	3	5	29	22	18
10	TJ Novy Jicin	13	4	4	5	20	24	16
11	Pusta Polom	13	4	3	6	21	25	15
12	FK Sumperk	13	3	5	5	17	19	14
13	Frydek Mistek B	13	4	2	7	24	28	14
14	Bridlicna	13	3	1	9	17	29	10
15	SSK Bilovec	13	2	4	7	11	28	10
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	13	1	0	12	13	49	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chomutov	Slovan Velvary
SK Ujezd Praha 4	2-1 W	1-2 L
FK Brandys nad Labem	1-0 W	0-2 L
Sokol Hostoun	3-1 W	1-5 L
FC Tempo Prague	2-2 D	2-1 W
FK Ostrov	1-2 L	1-3 L
Slavia Karlovy Vary	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Chomutov (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chomutov

WWLWWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	SK Ujezd Praha 4 Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	8	8	W
24/10	FK Brandys nad Labem Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
18/10	Sokol Hostoun Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	3-1	5	6	W
10/10	FC Tempo Prague Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
03/10	FK Ostrov Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
25/09	Slavia Karlovy Vary Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
19/09	Hvezda Cheb Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-1	10	5	W
12/09	SK Slany Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-2	11	4	L
05/09	SK Steti Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
29/08	Meteor Prague VIII Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	4-0	7	0	W

Slovan Velvary

WLWLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Banik Sokolov Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-4	3	6	L
24/10	SK Rapid Psary Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
17/10	Slavoj Vysehrad Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
10/10	FK Usti nad Labem B Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
03/10	SK Ujezd Praha 4 Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	1-2	0	9	L
26/09	FK Brandys nad Labem Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
20/09	Sokol Hostoun Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-5	5	4	L
12/09	FC Tempo Prague Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-1	5	6	W
06/09	FK Ostrov Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-3	9	2	L
29/08	Slavia Karlovy Vary Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	2-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chomutov vs Slovan Velvary?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chomutov win (66%). Probabilities: Chomutov 66%, draw 18%, Slovan Velvary 16%.

How many goals are expected in Chomutov vs Slovan Velvary?

The model expects 3.42 goals (Chomutov 2.36 · Slovan Velvary 1.06), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chomutov vs Slovan Velvary?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.