Football · Colombia Primera B · 01/08, 01:00
Prediction: Union Magdalena vs Orsomarso
Team pages: Union Magdalena · Orsomarso
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.14Total
Union Magdalena1.49
Orsomarso0.65
1X2
Union Magdalena
Draw
Orsomarso
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Union Magdalena
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Orsomarso
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Magdalena
4–2–0
Orsomarso
(6 last)
- Orsomarso0-1Union Magdalena
- Union Magdalena3-0Orsomarso
- Orsomarso1-3Union Magdalena
- Orsomarso1-2Union Magdalena
- Union Magdalena1-1Orsomarso
- Orsomarso2-2Union Magdalena
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Magdalena 1528 · Orsomarso 1472
| Union Magdalena | Draw | Orsomarso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 28% | 15% |
| Market | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Magdalena (rating 1528 vs 1472).
- H2H favours Union Magdalena: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Magdalena | Orsomarso | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.1 | 2.7 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.2 | 6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Magdalena 4–2–0 Orsomarso
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 Colombia Primera B | Orsomarso | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Union Magdalena |
| 07/08/24 Colombia Primera B | Union Magdalena | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Orsomarso |
| 16/02/24 Colombia Primera B | Orsomarso | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Union Magdalena |
| 18/10/21 Colombia Primera B | Orsomarso | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Union Magdalena |
| 06/02/21 Colombia Primera B | Union Magdalena | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Orsomarso |
| 25/02/20 Colombia Primera B | Orsomarso | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Union Magdalena |
Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Patriotas FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Independiente Yumbo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors De Cali | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Bogota FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Envigado FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Itagui Leones | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Orsomarso | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Barranquilla FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Deportes Quindio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Tigres FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Union Magdalena | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Internacional FC de Palmira | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Atletico Cali FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Real San Andres | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Magdalena | Orsomarso |
|---|---|---|
| Bogota FC | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Barranquilla FC | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Internacional FC de Palmira | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Orsomarso (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Magdalena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 18/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 12/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 04/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 28/04 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/04 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 09/04 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
2-1 | 4-2 | 10 | 7 | W |
Orsomarso
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 9 | D |
| 12/05 | Itagui Leones Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 18/04 | Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 13/04 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 31/03 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 12 | L |
| 27/03 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 21/03 | Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Magdalena vs Orsomarso?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Magdalena win (57%). Probabilities: Union Magdalena 57%, draw 27%, Orsomarso 16%.
How many goals are expected in Union Magdalena vs Orsomarso?
The model expects 2.14 goals (Union Magdalena 1.49 · Orsomarso 0.65), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Magdalena vs Orsomarso?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.