Football · Colombia Primera B · 25/08, 00:00

Prediction: Orsomarso vs Real Soacha Cundinamarca

Team pages: Orsomarso · Real Soacha Cundinamarca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.95Total

Orsomarso1.05

Real Soacha Cundinamarca0.9

1X2

38% 32% 30%

Orsomarso Draw Real Soacha Cundinamarca

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Orsomarso 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLDWDD

Real Soacha Cundinamarca 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDLDLDWD

Head-to-head

Orsomarso 0–3–3 Real Soacha Cundinamarca (6 last)

Real Soacha Cundinamarca1-0Orsomarso
Real Soacha Cundinamarca1-1Orsomarso
Orsomarso0-1Real Soacha Cundinamarca
Real Soacha Cundinamarca2-0Orsomarso
Orsomarso1-1Real Soacha Cundinamarca
Orsomarso0-0Real Soacha Cundinamarca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orsomarso 1492 · Real Soacha Cundinamarca 1498

	Orsomarso	Draw	Real Soacha Cundinamarca
Our model	37%	34%	29%
Market	39%	31%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 1.95 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Real Soacha Cundinamarca: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orsomarso	Real Soacha Cundinamarca
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.8	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.00

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.52 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.07

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:45 +1’	2.38	3.00	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:43 +3’	2.52	2.81	3.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orsomarso 0–3–3 Real Soacha Cundinamarca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Colombia Primera B	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	1-0 HT 0-0	Orsomarso
08/10/25 Colombia Primera B	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	1-1 HT 0-1	Orsomarso
28/04/25 Colombia Primera B	Orsomarso	0-1 HT 0-1	Real Soacha Cundinamarca
22/07/24 Colombia Primera B	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	2-0 HT 2-0	Orsomarso
04/02/24 Colombia Primera B	Orsomarso	1-1 HT 0-1	Real Soacha Cundinamarca
09/10/23 Colombia Primera B	Orsomarso	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Soacha Cundinamarca

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Itagui Leones	4	2	2	0	4	2	8
2	Real Cartagena	4	2	1	1	8	4	7
3	Independiente Yumbo	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
4	Patriotas FC	3	1	2	0	6	4	5
5	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	4	1	2	1	5	4	5
6	Orsomarso	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
7	Envigado FC	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
8	Tigres FC	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
9	Boca Juniors De Cali	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
10	Bogota FC	4	1	1	2	1	3	4
11	Real San Andres	4	0	3	1	7	11	3
12	Barranquilla FC	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
13	Deportes Quindio	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
14	Atletico Cali FC	3	0	2	1	4	6	2
15	Internacional FC de Palmira	3	0	2	1	2	4	2
16	Union Magdalena	2	0	1	1	0	1	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orsomarso	Real Soacha Cundinamarca
Barranquilla FC	1-0 W	2-2 D
Itagui Leones	0-0 D	1-1 D
Bogota FC	0-2 L	2-2 D
Deportes Quindio	2-2 D	0-0 D
Independiente Yumbo	2-0 W	1-1 D
Atletico Cali FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	0 W 5 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Orsomarso (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orsomarso

DWWDLLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	6	8	D
01/08	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
27/07	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
18/04	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
13/04	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
31/03	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-2	6	12	L
27/03	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-2	2	3	D
21/03	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
15/03	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
11/03	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-1	5	5	D

Real Soacha Cundinamarca

DDLDLDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
06/08	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-0	3-1	6	6	W
02/08	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
27/07	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	10	5	L
18/04	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	1	9	D
11/04	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-2	0-2	6	5	L
01/04	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-2	2	0	D
26/03	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	9	5	L
21/03	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	2-2	4	1	D
17/03	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	1	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orsomarso vs Real Soacha Cundinamarca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orsomarso win (38%). Probabilities: Orsomarso 38%, draw 32%, Real Soacha Cundinamarca 30%.

How many goals are expected in Orsomarso vs Real Soacha Cundinamarca?

The model expects 1.95 goals (Orsomarso 1.05 · Real Soacha Cundinamarca 0.9), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Orsomarso vs Real Soacha Cundinamarca?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.