Football · Colombia Primera B · 25/08, 22:30

Prediction: Boca Juniors De Cali vs Bogota FC

Team pages: Boca Juniors De Cali · Bogota FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Boca Juniors De Cali1.23

Bogota FC1.01

1X2

40% 30% 29%

Boca Juniors De Cali Draw Bogota FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Boca Juniors De Cali 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDDDLWDL

Bogota FC 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDLDWDLL

Head-to-head

Boca Juniors De Cali 2–4 Bogota FC (6 last)

Bogota FC2-1Boca Juniors De Cali
Boca Juniors De Cali2-1Bogota FC
Bogota FC1-0Boca Juniors De Cali
Bogota FC0-1Boca Juniors De Cali
Boca Juniors De Cali1-2Bogota FC
Bogota FC1-0Boca Juniors De Cali

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Boca Juniors De Cali 1508 · Bogota FC 1461

	Boca Juniors De Cali	Draw	Bogota FC
Our model	40%	31%	29%
Market	41%	30%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boca Juniors De Cali (rating 1508 vs 1461).
H2H favours Bogota FC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boca Juniors De Cali	Bogota FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	0.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.6	1.9 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:45 +5’	2.25	3.10	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boca Juniors De Cali 2–0–4 Bogota FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Colombia Primera B	Bogota FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Boca Juniors De Cali
04/10/25 Colombia Primera B	Boca Juniors De Cali	2-1 HT 2-0	Bogota FC
27/04/25 Colombia Primera B	Bogota FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Boca Juniors De Cali
30/07/24 Colombia Primera B	Bogota FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Boca Juniors De Cali
10/02/24 Colombia Primera B	Boca Juniors De Cali	1-2 HT 1-0	Bogota FC
30/07/23 Colombia Primera B	Bogota FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Boca Juniors De Cali

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Itagui Leones	4	2	2	0	4	2	8
2	Real Cartagena	4	2	1	1	8	4	7
3	Independiente Yumbo	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
4	Patriotas FC	3	1	2	0	6	4	5
5	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	4	1	2	1	5	4	5
6	Orsomarso	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
7	Envigado FC	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
8	Tigres FC	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
9	Boca Juniors De Cali	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
10	Bogota FC	4	1	1	2	1	3	4
11	Real San Andres	4	0	3	1	7	11	3
12	Barranquilla FC	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
13	Deportes Quindio	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
14	Atletico Cali FC	3	0	2	1	4	6	2
15	Internacional FC de Palmira	3	0	2	1	2	4	2
16	Union Magdalena	2	0	1	1	0	1	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boca Juniors De Cali	Bogota FC
Internacional FC de Palmira	1-2 L	0-0 D
Real Cartagena	1-1 D	0-2 L
Itagui Leones	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Boca Juniors De Cali (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Boca Juniors De Cali

DWDDDDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-3	2	6	L
01/08	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	11	0	D
24/07	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
18/04	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
07/04	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
01/04	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
27/03	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
21/03	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	2-2	3-3	1	1	D
14/03	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-1	3	7	W
10/03	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	3	3	D

Bogota FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	7	10	L
06/08	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	9	0	L
03/08	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
25/07	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
21/05	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
18/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	2	6	L
13/05	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
09/05	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
03/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-2	0-2	2	6	L
28/04	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boca Juniors De Cali vs Bogota FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Boca Juniors De Cali win (40%). Probabilities: Boca Juniors De Cali 40%, draw 30%, Bogota FC 29%.

How many goals are expected in Boca Juniors De Cali vs Bogota FC?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Boca Juniors De Cali 1.23 · Bogota FC 1.01), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Boca Juniors De Cali vs Bogota FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.