Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 27/09, 14:30

Prediction: Groene Ster vs VV Gemert

Team pages: Groene Ster · VV Gemert

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

Groene Ster1.92

VV Gemert1.56

1X2

46% 23% 31%

Groene Ster Draw VV Gemert

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Groene Ster 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLDDWD

VV Gemert 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDDDLDWD

Head-to-head

Groene Ster 0–5 VV Gemert (5 last)

Groene Ster1-2VV Gemert
VV Gemert1-0Groene Ster
Groene Ster3-4VV Gemert
Groene Ster1-4VV Gemert
VV Gemert2-1Groene Ster

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Groene Ster 1431 · VV Gemert 1548

	Groene Ster	Draw	VV Gemert
Our model	45%	24%	31%
Market	46%	23%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VV Gemert (rating 1431 vs 1548).
H2H favours VV Gemert: 5-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Groene Ster	VV Gemert
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.4	2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.4	2.4 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.90

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:31 +16’	1.95	3.90	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Groene Ster 0–0–5 VV Gemert

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Groene Ster	1-2 HT 1-0	VV Gemert
09/11/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VV Gemert	1-0 HT 0-0	Groene Ster
25/05/24 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Groene Ster	3-4 HT 1-1	VV Gemert
26/02/23 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Groene Ster	1-4 HT 0-0	VV Gemert
07/09/22 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VV Gemert	2-1 HT 1-0	Groene Ster

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Noordwijk	7	5	1	1	13	2	16
2	FC Lisse	7	5	1	1	12	6	16
3	Rijnvogels	6	4	2	0	16	6	14
4	VV Goes	7	4	2	1	16	13	14
5	Excelsior Maassluis	6	3	2	1	12	5	11
6	RKSV UDI '19	6	3	2	1	10	5	11
7	Zwaluwen	7	3	1	3	6	10	10
8	VV Dongen	6	3	0	3	15	15	9
9	SV Poortugaal	7	3	0	4	8	9	9
10	Blauw Geel '38	6	2	2	2	10	9	8
11	VV Gemert	6	1	4	1	10	10	7
12	VVSB	6	2	1	3	7	10	7
13	VV UNA	6	1	3	2	9	10	6
14	Groene Ster	6	1	3	2	10	13	6
15	Roosendaal	6	2	0	4	7	11	6
16	TOGB	7	1	2	4	9	15	5
17	Achilles Veen	7	1	0	6	7	19	3
18	EVV Echt	7	0	2	5	8	17	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Groene Ster	VV Gemert
VVSB	3-3 D	0-1 L
SteDoco	0-3 L	6-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Groene Ster

LLLWLLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	EVV Echt Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
12/09	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
05/09	TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	3-3	–	–	D
30/08	VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-3	4	2	D
22/08	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
16/08	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-3	2	7	L
23/05	ASWH Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-1	10	1	W
16/05	TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	1-5	3	0	L
09/05	Kloetinge Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
25/04	SteDoco Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	0-3	3	1	L

VV Gemert

LLWDDDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
12/09	SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
06/09	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
30/08	VV Dongen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
23/08	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
23/05	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-3	–	–	D
16/05	SteDoco Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-1	6-1	7	1	W
10/05	VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
25/04	Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Groene Ster vs VV Gemert?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Groene Ster win (46%). Probabilities: Groene Ster 46%, draw 23%, VV Gemert 31%.

How many goals are expected in Groene Ster vs VV Gemert?

The model expects 3.49 goals (Groene Ster 1.92 · VV Gemert 1.56), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Groene Ster vs VV Gemert?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.