Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 27/09, 14:00

Prediction: ADO '20 vs Hoogeveen

Team pages: ADO '20 · Hoogeveen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

ADO '201.98

Hoogeveen1.5

1X2

48% 23% 29%

ADO '20 Draw Hoogeveen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

ADO '20 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Hoogeveen 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

ADO '20 2–0 Hoogeveen (2 last)

ADO '205-1Hoogeveen
Hoogeveen0-2ADO '20

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ADO '20 1480 · Hoogeveen 1465

	ADO '20	Draw	Hoogeveen
Our model	48%	24%	28%
Market	48%	23%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours ADO '20: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ADO '20	Hoogeveen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.5	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.90

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:38 +6’	1.85	3.90	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ADO '20 2–0–0 Hoogeveen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	ADO '20	5-1 HT 2-0	Hoogeveen
17/08/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Hoogeveen	0-2 HT 0-2	ADO '20

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ACV Assen	7	6	1	0	19	4	19
2	Genemuiden	7	6	0	1	16	4	18
3	Harkemase Boys	7	5	2	0	13	7	17
4	Excelsior '31	7	5	1	1	19	6	16
5	VV Scherpenzeel	7	5	1	1	11	7	16
6	TEC	7	4	1	2	24	16	13
7	Sportlust '46	6	3	3	0	14	9	12
8	Sparta Nijkerk	7	3	2	2	20	16	11
9	Purmersteijn	7	3	2	2	11	9	11
10	Hoogeveen	6	2	1	3	12	13	7
11	ADO '20	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
12	DVS'33 Ermelo	6	1	2	3	9	12	5
13	DOVO	7	1	2	4	8	16	5
14	USV Hercules	6	1	0	5	8	20	3
15	Staphorst	7	0	3	4	10	15	3
16	VV Eemdijk	7	1	0	6	9	26	3
17	HVV Hollandia	6	0	1	5	13	20	1
18	SV Zwaluwen Wierden	7	0	1	6	9	24	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ADO '20	Hoogeveen
Purmersteijn	1-2 L	1-3 L
VV Scherpenzeel	0-1 L	1-2 L
SV Zwaluwen Wierden	6-4 W	4-3 W
VV Eemdijk	1-4 L	1-0 W
DOVO	0-1 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ADO '20

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Purmersteijn Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
13/09	VV Scherpenzeel Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
05/09	SV Zwaluwen Wierden Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-3	6-4	–	–	W
29/08	Staphorst Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
22/08	VV Eemdijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
16/08	USV Hercules Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	3-1	5	2	W
23/05	DOVO Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
16/05	VV Scherpenzeel Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
09/05	Urk Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
25/04	Staphorst Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-0	3	3	W

Hoogeveen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
12/09	DOVO Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
05/09	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
30/08	Purmersteijn Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
22/08	VV Scherpenzeel Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	SV Zwaluwen Wierden Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	4-3	–	–	W
23/05	Genemuiden Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
16/05	SV Huizen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
09/05	VV Eemdijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
25/04	Sparta Nijkerk Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	1-6	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ADO '20 vs Hoogeveen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ADO '20 win (48%). Probabilities: ADO '20 48%, draw 23%, Hoogeveen 29%.

How many goals are expected in ADO '20 vs Hoogeveen?

The model expects 3.48 goals (ADO '20 1.98 · Hoogeveen 1.5), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in ADO '20 vs Hoogeveen?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.