Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 04/10, 14:00

Prediction: VV Gemert vs FC Lisse

Team pages: VV Gemert · FC Lisse

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

VV Gemert1.42

FC Lisse1.37

1X2

38% 26% 36%

VV Gemert Draw FC Lisse

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

VV Gemert 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDDLDWDW

FC Lisse 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

VV Gemert 1–2–0 FC Lisse (3 last)

VV Gemert1-1FC Lisse
FC Lisse1-1VV Gemert
VV Gemert2-0FC Lisse

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VV Gemert 1555 · FC Lisse 1561

	VV Gemert	Draw	FC Lisse
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VV Gemert	FC Lisse
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.6	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.8	3 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3 / 1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:46 +21’	2.35	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VV Gemert 1–2–0 FC Lisse

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VV Gemert	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Lisse
11/10/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	FC Lisse	1-1 HT 0-0	VV Gemert
13/04/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VV Gemert	2-0 HT 2-0	FC Lisse

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rijnvogels	8	6	2	0	25	7	20
2	Noordwijk	7	5	1	1	13	2	16
3	FC Lisse	7	5	1	1	12	6	16
4	Excelsior Maassluis	7	4	2	1	13	5	14
5	VV Goes	7	4	2	1	16	13	14
6	RKSV UDI '19	7	3	2	2	10	9	11
7	VV Gemert	7	2	4	1	12	11	10
8	VV Dongen	7	3	1	3	17	17	10
9	Zwaluwen	7	3	1	3	6	10	10
10	SV Poortugaal	7	3	0	4	8	9	9
11	Roosendaal	8	3	0	5	13	16	9
12	Blauw Geel '38	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
13	TOGB	8	2	2	4	13	18	8
14	VV UNA	7	1	4	2	11	12	7
15	VVSB	7	2	1	4	8	13	7
16	Groene Ster	8	1	3	4	12	20	6
17	Achilles Veen	7	1	0	6	7	19	3
18	EVV Echt	7	0	2	5	8	17	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VV Gemert	FC Lisse
VV UNA	1-1 D	2-0 W
VVSB	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Lisse (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VV Gemert

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-1	9	4	W
20/09	RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
12/09	SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
06/09	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
30/08	VV Dongen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
23/08	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
23/05	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-3	–	–	D
16/05	SteDoco Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-1	6-1	7	1	W
10/05	VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

FC Lisse

WWWWWWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	EVV Echt Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
05/09	VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Achilles Veen Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
23/05	Scheveningen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
16/05	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	3-2	–	–	W
10/05	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-0	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VV Gemert vs FC Lisse?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VV Gemert win (38%). Probabilities: VV Gemert 38%, draw 26%, FC Lisse 36%.

How many goals are expected in VV Gemert vs FC Lisse?

The model expects 2.8 goals (VV Gemert 1.42 · FC Lisse 1.37), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in VV Gemert vs FC Lisse?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.