Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 04/10, 14:00

Prediction: Blauw Geel '38 vs VV UNA

Team pages: Blauw Geel '38 · VV UNA

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Blauw Geel '381.68

VV UNA1.38

1X2

44% 25% 31%

Blauw Geel '38 Draw VV UNA

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Blauw Geel '38 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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VV UNA 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Blauw Geel '38 2–4 VV UNA (6 last)

Blauw Geel '380-2VV UNA
VV UNA2-1Blauw Geel '38
VV UNA4-0Blauw Geel '38
Blauw Geel '386-0VV UNA
VV UNA2-1Blauw Geel '38
VV UNA0-1Blauw Geel '38

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Blauw Geel '38 1457 · VV UNA 1481

	Blauw Geel '38	Draw	VV UNA
Our model	43%	26%	31%
Market	45%	23%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours VV UNA: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Blauw Geel '38	VV UNA
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.8	1.6 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.80

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.00▼	Bet365 2.00
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.40 → 2.80▲	Pinn 3.48 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +6’	2.30	3.80	2.40
03:44 +6’	2.00▼	3.80	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:13 +97’	1.97	3.43	3.07
13:39 +2’	1.82▼	3.62▲	3.48▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Blauw Geel '38 2–0–4 VV UNA

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Blauw Geel '38	0-2 HT 0-1	VV UNA
23/11/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VV UNA	2-1 HT 0-0	Blauw Geel '38
26/01/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VV UNA	4-0 HT 1-0	Blauw Geel '38
01/09/24 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Blauw Geel '38	6-0 HT 2-0	VV UNA
03/09/23 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VV UNA	2-1 HT 0-1	Blauw Geel '38
23/04/22 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VV UNA	0-1 HT 0-0	Blauw Geel '38

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rijnvogels	8	6	2	0	25	7	20
2	Noordwijk	8	6	1	1	15	2	19
3	Excelsior Maassluis	8	5	2	1	16	7	17
4	FC Lisse	7	5	1	1	12	6	16
5	VV Goes	7	4	2	1	16	13	14
6	VV Dongen	8	4	1	3	21	17	13
7	Zwaluwen	8	4	1	3	7	10	13
8	RKSV UDI '19	7	3	2	2	10	9	11
9	VV Gemert	7	2	4	1	12	11	10
10	Roosendaal	8	3	0	5	13	16	9
11	SV Poortugaal	8	3	0	5	8	13	9
12	Blauw Geel '38	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
13	TOGB	8	2	2	4	13	18	8
14	VV UNA	7	1	4	2	11	12	7
15	VVSB	8	2	1	5	10	16	7
16	Groene Ster	8	1	3	4	12	20	6
17	Achilles Veen	8	1	0	7	7	20	3
18	EVV Echt	8	0	2	6	8	19	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Blauw Geel '38	VV UNA
VV Dongen	3-1 W	2-2 D
VV Goes	2-2 D	1-2 L
Rijnvogels	0-0 D	1-4 L
Zwaluwen	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Blauw Geel '38 (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Blauw Geel '38

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	VV Dongen Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-1	3-1	5	0	W
12/09	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
06/09	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	2-2	8	6	D
29/08	Achilles Veen Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-2	2-3	–	–	L
23/08	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
23/05	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
16/05	Scheveningen Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	3-2	–	–	W
10/05	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-2	9	3	L

VV UNA

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	VV Dongen Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
20/09	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-2	4	0	L
13/09	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-4	–	–	L
06/09	VV Gemert Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
30/08	EVV Echt Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-1	4-1	3	4	W
22/08	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
16/08	TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
23/05	Meerssen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
16/05	RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	FC Lisse Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Blauw Geel '38 vs VV UNA?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Blauw Geel '38 win (44%). Probabilities: Blauw Geel '38 44%, draw 25%, VV UNA 31%.

How many goals are expected in Blauw Geel '38 vs VV UNA?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Blauw Geel '38 1.68 · VV UNA 1.38), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Blauw Geel '38 vs VV UNA?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.