Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 03/10, 18:00

Prediction: Hoogeveen vs Genemuiden

Team pages: Hoogeveen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Hoogeveen1.46

Genemuiden1.99

1X2

28% 23% 49%

Hoogeveen Draw Genemuiden

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Hoogeveen 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLDWLW

Genemuiden 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Hoogeveen 2–0 Genemuiden (2 last)

Hoogeveen2-1Genemuiden
Genemuiden2-3Hoogeveen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hoogeveen 1517 · Genemuiden 1547

	Hoogeveen	Draw	Genemuiden
Our model	27%	24%	49%
Market	28%	22%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hoogeveen: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hoogeveen	Genemuiden
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.20

X4.00

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +5’	3.20	4.00	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hoogeveen 2–0–0 Genemuiden

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Hoogeveen	2-1 HT 0-1	Genemuiden
13/12/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Genemuiden	2-3 HT 2-1	Hoogeveen

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ACV Assen	7	6	1	0	19	4	19
2	Genemuiden	7	6	0	1	16	4	18
3	Harkemase Boys	7	5	2	0	13	7	17
4	Excelsior '31	7	5	1	1	19	6	16
5	VV Scherpenzeel	7	5	1	1	11	7	16
6	Sportlust '46	7	4	3	0	16	10	15
7	TEC	7	4	1	2	24	16	13
8	Sparta Nijkerk	7	3	2	2	20	16	11
9	Purmersteijn	7	3	2	2	11	9	11
10	Hoogeveen	7	3	1	3	17	14	10
11	ADO '20	7	2	1	4	12	17	7
12	USV Hercules	7	2	0	5	11	20	6
13	DVS'33 Ermelo	7	1	2	4	10	14	5
14	DOVO	7	1	2	4	8	16	5
15	Staphorst	7	0	3	4	10	15	3
16	VV Eemdijk	7	1	0	6	9	26	3
17	HVV Hollandia	7	0	1	6	13	23	1
18	SV Zwaluwen Wierden	7	0	1	6	9	24	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hoogeveen	Genemuiden
DOVO	4-1 W	2-6 L
Purmersteijn	1-3 L	2-0 W
VV Scherpenzeel	1-2 L	0-1 L
SV Zwaluwen Wierden	4-3 W	3-0 W
VV Eemdijk	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Genemuiden (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hoogeveen

WLWWLLDWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	ADO '20 Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	5-1	5	2	W
19/09	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
12/09	DOVO Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
05/09	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
30/08	Purmersteijn Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
22/08	VV Scherpenzeel Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	SV Zwaluwen Wierden Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	4-3	–	–	W
23/05	Genemuiden Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
16/05	SV Huizen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
09/05	VV Eemdijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	5	0	W

Genemuiden

LLLWWWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Purmersteijn Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	VV Scherpenzeel Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	SV Zwaluwen Wierden Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
05/09	Staphorst Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	VV Eemdijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
22/08	USV Hercules Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
15/08	DVS'33 Ermelo Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	Hoogeveen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
16/05	DOVO Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-4	2-6	–	–	L
09/05	VV Scherpenzeel Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hoogeveen vs Genemuiden?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Genemuiden win (49%). Probabilities: Hoogeveen 28%, draw 23%, Genemuiden 49%.

How many goals are expected in Hoogeveen vs Genemuiden?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Hoogeveen 1.46 · Genemuiden 1.99), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Hoogeveen vs Genemuiden?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.