Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 31/10, 10:30

Prediction: Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Ingulets Petrovo

Team pages: Lokomotiv Kyiv · Ingulets Petrovo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Lokomotiv Kyiv1.57

Ingulets Petrovo1.05

1X2

49% 27% 25%

Lokomotiv Kyiv Draw Ingulets Petrovo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Kyiv 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWWWDWDL

Ingulets Petrovo 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWLLLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Kyiv 1503 · Ingulets Petrovo 1470

	Lokomotiv Kyiv	Draw	Ingulets Petrovo
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Kyiv	Ingulets Petrovo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.50

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.83▼	Bet365 1.83
X	3.30 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	3.70 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.74 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:17 +3’	1.85	3.30	3.70
07:40 +20’	1.83▼	3.50▲	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +6’	1.82	3.36	3.68
08:54 +46’	1.83▲	3.41▲	3.74▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	13	8	2	3	22	14	26
2	FC Viktoriya Sumy	13	7	4	2	17	10	25
3	SC Poltava	13	7	3	3	24	11	24
4	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	13	7	3	3	20	13	24
5	PFC Oleksandria	13	6	5	2	19	11	23
6	FK Kulykiv-Bilka	13	6	3	4	26	17	21
7	Nyva Ternopil	13	4	6	3	15	11	18
8	Lokomotiv Kyiv	13	4	5	4	17	16	17
9	Ingulets Petrovo	12	5	2	5	13	16	17
10	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	14	4	4	6	13	18	16
11	FC Metalist Kharkiv	13	4	3	6	13	16	15
12	UCSA	13	3	5	5	18	21	14
13	Kolos Kovalivka II	13	4	1	8	12	22	13
14	FC Chernigiv	11	2	4	5	12	16	10
15	FC Probiy Horodenka	13	2	3	8	12	32	9
16	Polissya Zhytomyr II	13	1	5	7	18	27	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv Kyiv	Ingulets Petrovo
UCSA	2-3 L	2-1 W
Nyva Ternopil	0-0 D	1-2 L
PFC Oleksandria	3-1 W	0-3 L
SC Poltava	2-1 W	0-0 D
Kolos Kovalivka II	0-1 L	2-0 W
FSC Feniks-Mariupol	1-3 L	1-4 L
Ahrobiznes Volochysk	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Kyiv (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lokomotiv Kyiv

DLLWWWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	2-2	2-3	6	6	L
18/10	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
11/10	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	3-1	4	2	W
03/10	Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga	2-1	3-3	3	2	D
26/09	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
20/09	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	2-1	6	7	W
04/09	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
28/08	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-3	0	5	L
14/08	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Ingulets Petrovo

LLWDWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/10	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
10/10	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
26/09	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
04/09	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
29/08	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-1	9	7	W
16/08	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Ingulets Petrovo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Kyiv win (49%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Kyiv 49%, draw 27%, Ingulets Petrovo 25%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Ingulets Petrovo?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Lokomotiv Kyiv 1.57 · Ingulets Petrovo 1.05), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Ingulets Petrovo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.