Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 02/11, 12:30

Prediction: Polissya Zhytomyr II vs PFC Oleksandria

Team pages: Polissya Zhytomyr II · PFC Oleksandria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Polissya Zhytomyr II1.24

PFC Oleksandria1.54

1X2

30% 27% 44%

Polissya Zhytomyr II Draw PFC Oleksandria

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Polissya Zhytomyr II 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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PFC Oleksandria 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Polissya Zhytomyr II 1443 · PFC Oleksandria 1525

	Polissya Zhytomyr II	Draw	PFC Oleksandria
Our model	29%	27%	43%
Market	30%	26%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PFC Oleksandria (rating 1443 vs 1525).
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polissya Zhytomyr II	PFC Oleksandria
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.2	1.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.5 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.8	3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.40

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 12:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
X	3.90 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	1.55 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.30 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:00 +5’	4.75	3.90	1.55
22:00 +4’	3.40▼	3.60▼	1.83▲
06:59 +1’	4.20▲	3.60	1.67▼
11:00 +1’	4.10▼	3.60	1.67
12:01 +1’	3.00▼	3.40▼	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:43 +22’	3.75	3.57	1.75
22:00 +3’	3.96▲	3.65▲	1.68▼
22:44 +18’	4.14▲	3.72▲	1.64▼
05:59 +1’	4.14	3.65▼	1.66▲
11:01	4.24▲	3.87▲	1.63▼
11:59 +3’	2.72▼	3.31▼	2.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoriya Sumy	14	8	4	2	19	11	28
2	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	14	8	3	3	23	14	27
3	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	13	8	2	3	22	14	26
4	FK Kulykiv-Bilka	14	7	3	4	28	17	24
5	SC Poltava	14	7	3	4	25	13	24
6	PFC Oleksandria	13	6	5	2	19	11	23
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	14	5	5	4	19	17	20
8	Nyva Ternopil	14	4	7	3	17	13	19
9	Ingulets Petrovo	13	5	2	6	14	18	17
10	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	14	4	4	6	13	18	16
11	FC Metalist Kharkiv	13	4	3	6	13	16	15
12	UCSA	14	3	5	6	18	23	14
13	Kolos Kovalivka II	13	4	1	8	12	22	13
14	FC Chernigiv	12	2	4	6	13	19	10
15	FC Probiy Horodenka	14	2	4	8	14	34	10
16	Polissya Zhytomyr II	13	1	5	7	18	27	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Polissya Zhytomyr II	PFC Oleksandria
FC Probiy Horodenka	1-1 D	2-0 W
FK Kulykiv-Bilka	2-4 L	1-1 D
Lokomotiv Kyiv	3-3 D	1-3 L
Kolos Kovalivka II	0-3 L	2-0 W
FSC Feniks-Mariupol	1-2 L	1-1 D
Ahrobiznes Volochysk	3-2 W	0-1 L
FC Viktoriya Sumy	1-1 D	1-0 W
Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	1-2 L	0-0 D
FC Chernigiv	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: PFC Oleksandria (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Polissya Zhytomyr II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
18/10	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
12/10	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-4	2-4	8	4	L
03/10	Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-2	3-3	4	2	D
28/09	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-3	9	6	L
20/09	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
14/09	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
05/09	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	FC Chernigiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	2-2	–	–	D

PFC Oleksandria

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
18/10	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
11/10	Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-3	7	2	L
04/10	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
27/09	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-1	9	1	D
20/09	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
14/09	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
05/09	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
29/08	FC Chernigiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polissya Zhytomyr II vs PFC Oleksandria?

According to our model, the most likely result is an PFC Oleksandria win (44%). Probabilities: Polissya Zhytomyr II 30%, draw 27%, PFC Oleksandria 44%.

How many goals are expected in Polissya Zhytomyr II vs PFC Oleksandria?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Polissya Zhytomyr II 1.24 · PFC Oleksandria 1.54), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Polissya Zhytomyr II vs PFC Oleksandria?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.