Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 17/10, 10:00
Prediction: FC Viktoriya Sumy vs FC Chernigiv
Team pages: FC Viktoriya Sumy · FC Chernigiv
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
FC Viktoriya Sumy1.52
FC Chernigiv0.91
1X2
FC Viktoriya Sumy
Draw
FC Chernigiv
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Viktoriya Sumy
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
FC Chernigiv
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Viktoriya Sumy
5–0
FC Chernigiv
(5 last)
- FC Viktoriya Sumy3-0FC Chernigiv
- FC Chernigiv1-2FC Viktoriya Sumy
- FC Chernigiv0-1FC Viktoriya Sumy
- FC Chernigiv0-3FC Viktoriya Sumy
- FC Viktoriya Sumy2-1FC Chernigiv
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Viktoriya Sumy 1537 · FC Chernigiv 1507
| FC Viktoriya Sumy | Draw | FC Chernigiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 28% | 21% |
| Market | 51% | 26% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FC Viktoriya Sumy: 5-0-0.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Viktoriya Sumy | FC Chernigiv | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.3 / 7.9 | 1 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.3 | 4.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Viktoriya Sumy 5–0–0 FC Chernigiv
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/25 Ukraine Persha Liga | FC Viktoriya Sumy | 3-0 HT 1-0 | FC Chernigiv |
| 09/08/25 Ukraine Persha Liga | FC Chernigiv | 1-2 HT 1-2 | FC Viktoriya Sumy |
| 12/08/24 Ukraine Cup | FC Chernigiv | 0-1 HT 0-1 | FC Viktoriya Sumy |
| 12/11/23 Ukraine Persha Liga | FC Chernigiv | 0-3 HT 0-1 | FC Viktoriya Sumy |
| 09/09/23 Ukraine Persha Liga | FC Viktoriya Sumy | 2-1 HT 1-1 | FC Chernigiv |
Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Viktoriya Sumy | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | FK Kulykiv-Bilka | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 20 |
| 4 | PFC Oleksandria | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 19 |
| 5 | SC Poltava | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 10 | 18 |
| 6 | FSC Feniks-Mariupol | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 18 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 16 |
| 8 | Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 15 |
| 9 | FC Metalist Kharkiv | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 15 |
| 10 | Nyva Ternopil | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 14 |
| 11 | Ingulets Petrovo | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 14 |
| 12 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 12 |
| 13 | UCSA | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 10 |
| 14 | FC Chernigiv | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| 15 | FC Probiy Horodenka | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 29 | 8 |
| 16 | Polissya Zhytomyr II | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 24 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Viktoriya Sumy | FC Chernigiv |
|---|---|---|
| FC Metalist Kharkiv | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| UCSA | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| Nyva Ternopil | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| PFC Oleksandria | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Polissya Zhytomyr II | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| FC Probiy Horodenka | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| FK Kulykiv-Bilka | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Lokomotiv Kyiv | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 2 L | 1 W 4 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Viktoriya Sumy (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Viktoriya Sumy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 03/10 | Ingulets Petrovo Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 26/09 | UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 21/09 | Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 13 | 1 | L |
| 14/09 | PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 30/08 | FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 7 | W |
FC Chernigiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 02/10 | SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 11/09 | UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/08 | PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 09/08 | FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 01/08 | FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 25/07 | Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Viktoriya Sumy vs FC Chernigiv?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Viktoriya Sumy win (51%). Probabilities: FC Viktoriya Sumy 51%, draw 27%, FC Chernigiv 22%.
How many goals are expected in FC Viktoriya Sumy vs FC Chernigiv?
The model expects 2.43 goals (FC Viktoriya Sumy 1.52 · FC Chernigiv 0.91), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Viktoriya Sumy vs FC Chernigiv?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.