Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 02/11, 11:00

Prediction: Kolos Kovalivka II vs FC Metalist Kharkiv

Team pages: Kolos Kovalivka II · FC Metalist Kharkiv

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Kolos Kovalivka II1.01

FC Metalist Kharkiv1.25

1X2

29% 30% 41%

Kolos Kovalivka II Draw FC Metalist Kharkiv

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Kolos Kovalivka II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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FC Metalist Kharkiv 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kolos Kovalivka II 1462 · FC Metalist Kharkiv 1490

	Kolos Kovalivka II	Draw	FC Metalist Kharkiv
Our model	29%	31%	40%
Market	30%	29%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kolos Kovalivka II	FC Metalist Kharkiv
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	0.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 3.8	1.7 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.10

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.18 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.25 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.19

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:09 +15’	2.88	3.10	2.25
08:58 +3’	3.00▲	3.10	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +12’	2.59	2.94	2.55
19:33 +23’	2.96▲	2.94	2.27▼
05:58 +2’	3.13▲	2.97▲	2.17▼
09:56 +5’	3.18▲	3.01▲	2.19▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoriya Sumy	14	8	4	2	19	11	28
2	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	14	8	3	3	23	14	27
3	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	13	8	2	3	22	14	26
4	FK Kulykiv-Bilka	14	7	3	4	28	17	24
5	SC Poltava	14	7	3	4	25	13	24
6	PFC Oleksandria	13	6	5	2	19	11	23
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	14	5	5	4	19	17	20
8	Nyva Ternopil	14	4	7	3	17	13	19
9	Ingulets Petrovo	13	5	2	6	14	18	17
10	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	14	4	4	6	13	18	16
11	FC Metalist Kharkiv	13	4	3	6	13	16	15
12	UCSA	14	3	5	6	18	23	14
13	Kolos Kovalivka II	13	4	1	8	12	22	13
14	FC Chernigiv	12	2	4	6	13	19	10
15	FC Probiy Horodenka	14	2	4	8	14	34	10
16	Polissya Zhytomyr II	13	1	5	7	18	27	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kolos Kovalivka II	FC Metalist Kharkiv
Ingulets Petrovo	0-2 L	0-1 L
UCSA	0-0 D	3-1 W
Nyva Ternopil	1-3 L	1-1 D
PFC Oleksandria	0-2 L	0-2 L
SC Poltava	0-1 L	0-3 L
FSC Feniks-Mariupol	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Metalist Kharkiv (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kolos Kovalivka II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Ingulets Petrovo Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
17/10	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/10	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-3	3	2	L
04/10	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
28/09	Polissya Zhytomyr II Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	3-0	6	6	W
19/09	FC Probiy Horodenka Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	4-2	–	–	W
12/09	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Persha Liga	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
04/09	Lokomotiv Kyiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
28/08	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
16/08	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L

FC Metalist Kharkiv

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FSC Feniks-Mariupol Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
17/10	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
09/10	FC Viktoriya Sumy Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
03/10	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
27/09	FC Chernigiv Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
20/09	SC Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
12/09	Ingulets Petrovo Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
30/08	Nyva Ternopil Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	PFC Oleksandria Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kolos Kovalivka II vs FC Metalist Kharkiv?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Metalist Kharkiv win (41%). Probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka II 29%, draw 30%, FC Metalist Kharkiv 41%.

How many goals are expected in Kolos Kovalivka II vs FC Metalist Kharkiv?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Kolos Kovalivka II 1.01 · FC Metalist Kharkiv 1.25), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka II vs FC Metalist Kharkiv?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.