Football · Poland I Liga · 24/07, 18:00
Prediction: Polonia Bytom vs Warta Poznan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.42Total
Polonia Bytom2.05
Warta Poznan1.36
1X2
Polonia Bytom
Draw
Warta Poznan
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Polonia Bytom
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Warta Poznan
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Polonia Bytom
2–1
Warta Poznan
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Polonia Bytom 1521 · Warta Poznan 1491
| Polonia Bytom | Draw | Warta Poznan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 23% | 24% |
| Market | 52% | 24% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Polonia Bytom: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Polonia Bytom | Warta Poznan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2 | 1.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.8 | 2.2 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Polonia Bytom 2–0–1 Warta Poznan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/25 Poland Cup | Warta Poznan | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Polonia Bytom |
| 03/03/17 Poland II Liga | Polonia Bytom | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Warta Poznan |
| 13/08/16 Poland II Liga | Warta Poznan | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Polonia Bytom |
Standings · Poland I Liga
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chrobry Glogow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stal Mielec | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lechia Gdansk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | LKS Lodz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Miedz Legnica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Arka Gdynia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Odra Opole | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Polonia Bytom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Polonia Warsaw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Puszcza Niepolomice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ruch Chorzow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stal Rzeszow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Unia Skierniewice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Warta Poznan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Polonia Bytom
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Opava Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Rekord Bielsko-Biala Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | Gryf Wejherowo Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Stal Mielec Poland I Liga |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Slask Wroclaw Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Znicz Pruszków Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 04/05 | Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Odra Opole Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/04 | Wieczysta Krakow Poland I Liga |
2-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 18/04 | Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
Warta Poznan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Chrobry Glogow Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 03/07 | Motor Lublin Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 23/05 | Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland II Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 10/05 | Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Olimpia Grudziadz Poland II Liga |
1-0 | 4-2 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland II Liga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/04 | Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Polonia Bytom vs Warta Poznan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Polonia Bytom win (52%). Probabilities: Polonia Bytom 52%, draw 24%, Warta Poznan 24%.
How many goals are expected in Polonia Bytom vs Warta Poznan?
The model expects 3.42 goals (Polonia Bytom 2.05 · Warta Poznan 1.36), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Polonia Bytom vs Warta Poznan?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.