Football · Poland I Liga · 01/08, 15:30
Prediction: MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Termalica BB Nieciecza
Team pages: MKP Pogon Siedlce · Termalica BB Nieciecza
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.02Total
MKP Pogon Siedlce1.51
Termalica BB Nieciecza1.51
1X2
MKP Pogon Siedlce
Draw
Termalica BB Nieciecza
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
MKP Pogon Siedlce
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Termalica BB Nieciecza
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
MKP Pogon Siedlce
0–1–3
Termalica BB Nieciecza
(4 last)
- Termalica BB Nieciecza1-1MKP Pogon Siedlce
- MKP Pogon Siedlce1-2Termalica BB Nieciecza
- Termalica BB Nieciecza2-0MKP Pogon Siedlce
- MKP Pogon Siedlce1-4Termalica BB Nieciecza
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · MKP Pogon Siedlce 1444 · Termalica BB Nieciecza 1592
| MKP Pogon Siedlce | Draw | Termalica BB Nieciecza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Market | 38% | 25% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Termalica BB Nieciecza (rating 1444 vs 1592).
- H2H favours Termalica BB Nieciecza: 3-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| MKP Pogon Siedlce | Termalica BB Nieciecza | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.2 | 2.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.3 | 1.9 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · MKP Pogon Siedlce 0–1–3 Termalica BB Nieciecza
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/25 Poland I Liga | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 1-1 HT 0-0 | MKP Pogon Siedlce |
| 11/08/24 Poland I Liga | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Termalica BB Nieciecza |
| 30/05/15 Poland I Liga | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 2-0 HT 1-0 | MKP Pogon Siedlce |
| 09/11/14 Poland I Liga | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Termalica BB Nieciecza |
Standings · Poland I Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chrobry Glogow | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Polonia Bytom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Stal Mielec | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arka Gdynia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Polonia Warsaw | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | LKS Lodz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Miedz Legnica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Warta Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 | Unia Skierniewice | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Odra Opole | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Puszcza Niepolomice | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Ruch Chorzow | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Lechia Gdansk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Stal Rzeszow | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
MKP Pogon Siedlce
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | LKS Lodz Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 18/07 | Radomiak Radom Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 04/07 | Jagiellonia Bialystok Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | Unia Skierniewice Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Wisla Krakow Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | Stal Mielec Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | LKS Lodz Poland I Liga |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Termalica BB Nieciecza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 17/07 | Korona Kielce Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | Sandecja Nowy Sacz Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Resovia Rzeszow Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 27/06 | Wisla Krakow Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-3 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Unia Tarnow Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Lechia Gdansk Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 18/05 | Arka Gdynia Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Termalica BB Nieciecza?
According to our model, the most likely result is a MKP Pogon Siedlce win (37%). Probabilities: MKP Pogon Siedlce 37%, draw 26%, Termalica BB Nieciecza 37%.
How many goals are expected in MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Termalica BB Nieciecza?
The model expects 3.02 goals (MKP Pogon Siedlce 1.51 · Termalica BB Nieciecza 1.51), with a 64% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Termalica BB Nieciecza?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.