Football · Wales Championship North · 13/11, 20:30

Prediction: Denbigh Town vs Gresford Ath

Team pages: Denbigh Town · Gresford Ath

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.83Total

Denbigh Town2.59

Gresford Ath1.24

1X2

66% 19% 16%

Denbigh Town Draw Gresford Ath

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Denbigh Town 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLLWWD

Gresford Ath 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLDWWLLL

Head-to-head

Denbigh Town 3–1–2 Gresford Ath (6 last)

Denbigh Town2-3Gresford Ath
Gresford Ath0-5Denbigh Town
Gresford Ath3-3Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town5-1Gresford Ath
Denbigh Town2-5Gresford Ath
Gresford Ath1-2Denbigh Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Denbigh Town 1470 · Gresford Ath 1432

	Denbigh Town	Draw	Gresford Ath
Our model	66%	19%	16%
Market	66%	19%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.83 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Denbigh Town: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Denbigh Town	Gresford Ath
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.2	0.7 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.5 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6	0.3 / 0.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:00 +4’	1.36	4.75	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Denbigh Town 3–1–2 Gresford Ath

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/01/26 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	2-3 HT 1-1	Gresford Ath
15/08/25 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	0-5 HT 0-2	Denbigh Town
12/04/25 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	3-3 HT 1-0	Denbigh Town
23/08/24 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	5-1 HT 2-1	Gresford Ath
19/03/24 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	2-5 HT 1-1	Gresford Ath
28/10/23 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	1-2 HT 1-1	Denbigh Town

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	14	11	1	2	31	12	34
2	Newtown	13	9	3	1	24	5	30
3	Mold Alexandra	13	8	3	2	32	16	27
4	Porthmadog	14	8	3	3	21	14	27
5	Bala Town	14	7	3	4	27	24	24
6	Caersws	13	6	5	2	28	18	23
7	Bangor 1876 FC	13	6	3	4	33	19	21
8	Guilsfield	14	4	6	4	20	19	18
9	Buckley Town	14	4	3	7	26	26	15
10	Holyhead Hotspur	13	4	3	6	18	21	15
11	Denbigh Town	13	4	2	7	26	28	14
12	CPD Llanuwchllyn	13	4	2	7	23	32	14
13	Rhyl	13	2	6	5	22	25	12
14	Ruthin Town FC	13	3	3	7	12	24	12
15	Gresford Ath	12	2	1	9	7	33	7
16	Penrhyncoch	13	0	1	12	6	40	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Denbigh Town	Gresford Ath
Mold Alexandra	2-2 D	1-5 L
CPD Llanuwchllyn	4-3 W	0-2 L
Guilsfield	2-0 W	1-1 D
Brickfield Rangers	0-2 L	0-5 L
Bala Town	5-2 W	0-3 L
Rhyl	1-3 L	3-1 W
Penrhyncoch	2-2 D	1-0 W
Porthmadog	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Denbigh Town (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Denbigh Town

LDLLWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-0	2-2	10	2	D
31/10	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	1-1	4-3	–	–	W
10/10	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
02/10	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	2-1	2-4	3	4	L
26/09	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/09	Bala Town Wales Championship North	1-0	5-2	4	2	W
05/09	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
31/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
28/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
21/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-1	2-3	7	1	L

Gresford Ath

LLLLDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-5	0-9	0	3	L
31/10	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
10/10	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	1	1	W
26/09	Rhyl Wales Championship North	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-5	1-5	–	–	L
31/08	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
21/08	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
16/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-5	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Denbigh Town vs Gresford Ath?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Denbigh Town win (66%). Probabilities: Denbigh Town 66%, draw 19%, Gresford Ath 16%.

How many goals are expected in Denbigh Town vs Gresford Ath?

The model expects 3.83 goals (Denbigh Town 2.59 · Gresford Ath 1.24), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Denbigh Town vs Gresford Ath?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.