Football · Wales Championship North · 06/11, 20:30

Prediction: Bangor 1876 FC vs Gresford Ath

Team pages: Bangor 1876 FC · Gresford Ath

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Bangor 1876 FC2.41

Gresford Ath0.91

1X2

70% 17% 12%

Bangor 1876 FC Draw Gresford Ath

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Bangor 1876 FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Gresford Ath 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bangor 1876 FC 2–3 Gresford Ath (5 last)

Gresford Ath2-0Bangor 1876 FC
Bangor 1876 FC1-0Gresford Ath
Gresford Ath1-3Bangor 1876 FC
Bangor 1876 FC1-3Gresford Ath
Bangor 1876 FC0-3Gresford Ath

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bangor 1876 FC 1531 · Gresford Ath 1427

	Bangor 1876 FC	Draw	Gresford Ath
Our model	70%	19%	12%
Market	71%	16%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bangor 1876 FC (rating 1531 vs 1427).
H2H favours Gresford Ath: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bangor 1876 FC	Gresford Ath
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.6	0.7 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	1 / 1.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:40 +24’	1.27	5.50	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bangor 1876 FC 2–0–3 Gresford Ath

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/25 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	2-0 HT 2-0	Bangor 1876 FC
28/09/24 Wales Championship North	Bangor 1876 FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Gresford Ath
02/02/24 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	1-3 HT 0-1	Bangor 1876 FC
29/09/23 Wales Championship North	Bangor 1876 FC	1-3 HT 0-1	Gresford Ath
05/08/23 Wales League Cup	Bangor 1876 FC	0-3 HT 0-0	Gresford Ath

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	13	10	1	2	28	11	31
2	Newtown	12	8	3	1	22	5	27
3	Mold Alexandra	12	8	2	2	30	14	26
4	Porthmadog	13	7	3	3	20	14	24
5	Bala Town	13	6	3	4	26	24	21
6	Caersws	12	5	5	2	25	18	20
7	Bangor 1876 FC	12	5	3	4	24	19	18
8	Guilsfield	13	4	6	3	20	18	18
9	Buckley Town	13	4	3	6	25	23	15
10	Holyhead Hotspur	12	4	2	6	17	20	14
11	CPD Llanuwchllyn	12	4	2	6	23	31	14
12	Denbigh Town	12	4	1	7	24	26	13
13	Ruthin Town FC	12	3	3	6	12	22	12
14	Rhyl	12	2	5	5	21	24	11
15	Gresford Ath	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
16	Penrhyncoch	12	0	1	11	6	37	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bangor 1876 FC	Gresford Ath
Caersws	1-1 D	0-1 L
Porthmadog	0-1 L	0-1 L
Penrhyncoch	5-1 W	1-0 W
Rhyl	2-2 D	3-1 W
Mold Alexandra	1-2 L	1-5 L
Brickfield Rangers	2-1 W	0-5 L
CPD Llanuwchllyn	5-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Bangor 1876 FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bangor 1876 FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
10/10	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
25/09	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	2-3	2-6	4	4	L
12/09	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	4-0	5-1	–	–	W
05/09	Rhyl Wales Championship North	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
31/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
28/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
21/08	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	1-2	3-2	5	4	W
15/08	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	3-0	5-0	–	–	W

Gresford Ath

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
10/10	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	1	1	W
26/09	Rhyl Wales Championship North	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-5	1-5	–	–	L
31/08	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
21/08	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
16/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-5	1	4	L
08/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bangor 1876 FC vs Gresford Ath?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bangor 1876 FC win (70%). Probabilities: Bangor 1876 FC 70%, draw 17%, Gresford Ath 12%.

How many goals are expected in Bangor 1876 FC vs Gresford Ath?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Bangor 1876 FC 2.41 · Gresford Ath 0.91), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bangor 1876 FC vs Gresford Ath?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.