Football · Wales Championship North · 06/11, 20:45

Prediction: Ruthin Town FC vs Newtown

Team pages: Ruthin Town FC · Newtown

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Ruthin Town FC0.87

Newtown1.98

1X2

16% 21% 63%

Ruthin Town FC Draw Newtown

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Ruthin Town FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLWDDW

Newtown 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLWDDW

Head-to-head

Ruthin Town FC 0–2 Newtown (2 last)

Ruthin Town FC2-3Newtown
Newtown3-0Ruthin Town FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ruthin Town FC 1460 · Newtown 1581

	Ruthin Town FC	Draw	Newtown
Our model	15%	23%	62%
Market	16%	20%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newtown (rating 1460 vs 1581).
H2H favours Newtown: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ruthin Town FC	Newtown
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	1.4 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.8	1.7 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.4	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.50

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.95

2 (-1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
08:57 +8’	5.50	4.50	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ruthin Town FC 0–0–2 Newtown

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Wales Championship North	Ruthin Town FC	2-3 HT 1-1	Newtown
25/07/25 Wales Championship North	Newtown	3-0 HT 1-0	Ruthin Town FC

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	13	10	1	2	28	11	31
2	Newtown	12	8	3	1	22	5	27
3	Mold Alexandra	12	8	2	2	30	14	26
4	Porthmadog	13	7	3	3	20	14	24
5	Bala Town	13	6	3	4	26	24	21
6	Caersws	12	5	5	2	25	18	20
7	Bangor 1876 FC	12	5	3	4	24	19	18
8	Guilsfield	13	4	6	3	20	18	18
9	Buckley Town	13	4	3	6	25	23	15
10	Holyhead Hotspur	12	4	2	6	17	20	14
11	CPD Llanuwchllyn	12	4	2	6	23	31	14
12	Denbigh Town	12	4	1	7	24	26	13
13	Ruthin Town FC	12	3	3	6	12	22	12
14	Rhyl	12	2	5	5	21	24	11
15	Gresford Ath	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
16	Penrhyncoch	12	0	1	11	6	37	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ruthin Town FC	Newtown
Rhyl	1-1 D	2-2 D
Buckley Town	1-1 D	2-0 W
Porthmadog	0-3 L	0-1 L
Mold Alexandra	0-4 L	2-1 W
Guilsfield	2-2 D	1-1 D
Denbigh Town	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Newtown (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ruthin Town FC

WDLLLLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
09/10	Rhyl Wales Championship North	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
03/10	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
25/09	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
12/09	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
04/09	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
31/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
28/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
22/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
14/08	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	2	5	W

Newtown

DWWWWLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
24/10	Rhyl Wales Championship North	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
10/10	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	8	7	W
26/09	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
05/09	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
31/08	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
28/08	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
15/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-1	1-1	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ruthin Town FC vs Newtown?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Newtown win (63%). Probabilities: Ruthin Town FC 16%, draw 21%, Newtown 63%.

How many goals are expected in Ruthin Town FC vs Newtown?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Ruthin Town FC 0.87 · Newtown 1.98), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ruthin Town FC vs Newtown?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.