Football · Wales Championship North · 01/08, 15:30
Prediction: Mold Alexandra vs Caersws
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.24Total
Mold Alexandra1.89
Caersws1.35
1X2
Mold Alexandra
Draw
Caersws
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Mold Alexandra
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Caersws
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mold Alexandra
3–1–2
Caersws
(6 last)
- Mold Alexandra0-2Caersws
- Caersws0-2Mold Alexandra
- Mold Alexandra2-2Caersws
- Caersws0-1Mold Alexandra
- Mold Alexandra2-1Caersws
- Caersws4-0Mold Alexandra
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mold Alexandra 1546 · Caersws 1492
| Mold Alexandra | Draw | Caersws | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 24% | 26% |
| Market | 50% | 23% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mold Alexandra (rating 1546 vs 1492).
- H2H favours Mold Alexandra: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mold Alexandra | Caersws | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.8 | 1.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.1 | 2.7 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mold Alexandra 3–1–2 Caersws
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/25 Wales Championship North | Mold Alexandra | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Caersws |
| 09/08/25 Wales Championship North | Caersws | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Mold Alexandra |
| 08/02/25 Wales Championship North | Mold Alexandra | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Caersws |
| 07/09/24 Wales Championship North | Caersws | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Mold Alexandra |
| 29/03/24 Wales Championship North | Mold Alexandra | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Caersws |
| 12/08/23 Wales Championship North | Caersws | 4-0 HT 4-0 | Mold Alexandra |
Standings · Wales Championship North
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bala Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Buckley Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caersws | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bangor 1876 FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rhyl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Denbigh Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gresford Ath | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guilsfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Holyhead Hotspur | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Llanuwchllyn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mold Alexandra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Newtown | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Penrhyncoch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Porthmadog | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ruthin Town FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mold Alexandra | Caersws |
|---|---|---|
| Holywell Town | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Airbus UK | 3-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Brickfield Rangers | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Gresford Ath | 4-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Guilsfield | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Mold Alexandra (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mold Alexandra
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Holywell Town UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 30/06 | Airbus UK UK Friendlies |
2-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Flint Mountain FC Wales Championship North |
3-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 03/04 | Newtown Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 28/03 | Gresford Ath Wales Championship North |
2-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 13/03 | Airbus UK Wales Championship North |
0-3 | 0-8 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 07/03 | Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 28/02 | Guilsfield Wales Championship North |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Caersws
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04 | Denbigh Town Wales Championship North |
3-0 | 6-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/04 | Buckley Town Wales Championship North |
0-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Guilsfield Wales Championship North |
1-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 06/04 | Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 03/04 | Gresford Ath Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Llandudno Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 21/03 | Rhyl Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 14/03 | Holywell Town Wales Championship North |
0-3 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 07/03 | Airbus UK Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 28/02 | Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mold Alexandra vs Caersws?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mold Alexandra win (50%). Probabilities: Mold Alexandra 50%, draw 24%, Caersws 27%.
How many goals are expected in Mold Alexandra vs Caersws?
The model expects 3.24 goals (Mold Alexandra 1.89 · Caersws 1.35), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Mold Alexandra vs Caersws?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.