Football · Wales Championship North · 01/08, 15:30

Prediction: Buckley Town vs Denbigh Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Buckley Town1.55

Denbigh Town1.65

1X2

36% 24% 40%

Buckley Town Draw Denbigh Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Buckley Town 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Denbigh Town 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Buckley Town 1–1–4 Denbigh Town (6 last)

Buckley Town1-4Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town1-1Buckley Town
Buckley Town0-5Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town1-2Buckley Town
Buckley Town1-2Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town6-5Buckley Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Buckley Town 1400 · Denbigh Town 1490

	Buckley Town	Draw	Denbigh Town
Our model	35%	25%	39%
Market	36%	23%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Denbigh Town (rating 1400 vs 1490).
H2H favours Denbigh Town: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Buckley Town	Denbigh Town
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 3.2	1.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.5	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.2	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.90

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.66 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:05 +4’	2.45	3.90	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:22 +1’	2.66	3.70	2.18

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Buckley Town 1–1–4 Denbigh Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Wales Championship North	Buckley Town	1-4 HT 1-2	Denbigh Town
05/09/25 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	1-1 HT 1-1	Buckley Town
01/03/25 Wales Championship North	Buckley Town	0-5 HT 0-4	Denbigh Town
21/12/24 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	1-2 HT 0-1	Buckley Town
10/02/24 Wales Championship North	Buckley Town	1-2 HT 1-1	Denbigh Town
22/09/23 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	6-5 HT 3-3	Buckley Town

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bala Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Brickfield Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Buckley Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Caersws	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bangor 1876 FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rhyl	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Denbigh Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gresford Ath	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guilsfield	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Holyhead Hotspur	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Llanuwchllyn	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mold Alexandra	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newtown	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Penrhyncoch	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Porthmadog	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ruthin Town FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Buckley Town	Denbigh Town
Holyhead Hotspur	1-5 L	1-1 D
Caersws	2-3 L	0-6 L
Brickfield Rangers	0-6 L	0-1 L
Penrhyncoch	0-2 L	1-0 W
Airbus UK	0-3 L	0-2 L
Holywell Town	1-2 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Denbigh Town (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Buckley Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/06	Llandudno UK Friendlies	0-3	0-6	2	0	L
18/04	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	1-4	1-5	4	2	L
13/04	Caersws Wales Championship North	2-0	2-3	2	6	L
03/04	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-4	0-6	7	1	L
27/03	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
20/03	Newtown Wales Championship North	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
13/03	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-2	1-4	11	7	L
07/03	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
28/02	Airbus UK Wales Championship North	0-1	0-3	2	6	L
20/02	Holywell Town Wales Championship North	1-0	1-2	1	4	L

Denbigh Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Airbus UK UK Friendlies	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
03/07	Colwyn Bay UK Friendlies	2-0	2-1	2	0	W
18/04	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-3	0-6	4	4	L
03/04	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
31/03	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
27/03	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
20/03	Airbus UK Wales Championship North	2-0	3-2	10	4	W
13/03	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	2-1	4-1	3	7	W
06/03	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	14	3	L
27/02	Holywell Town Wales Championship North	0-4	1-5	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Buckley Town vs Denbigh Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Denbigh Town win (40%). Probabilities: Buckley Town 36%, draw 24%, Denbigh Town 40%.

How many goals are expected in Buckley Town vs Denbigh Town?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Buckley Town 1.55 · Denbigh Town 1.65), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Buckley Town vs Denbigh Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.