Football · Wales Championship North · 08/08, 15:30
Prediction: Caersws vs Gresford Ath
Team pages: Caersws · Gresford Ath
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.56Total
Caersws2.35
Gresford Ath1.21
1X2
Caersws
Draw
Gresford Ath
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Caersws
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Gresford Ath
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Caersws
2–1–3
Gresford Ath
(6 last)
- Gresford Ath0-2Caersws
- Caersws3-1Gresford Ath
- Gresford Ath3-1Caersws
- Caersws0-1Gresford Ath
- Caersws1-1Gresford Ath
- Caersws2-3Gresford Ath
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caersws 1500 · Gresford Ath 1431
| Caersws | Draw | Gresford Ath | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 21% | 18% |
| Market | 62% | 20% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caersws (rating 1500 vs 1431).
- H2H favours Gresford Ath: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caersws | Gresford Ath | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 5 | 2.6 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.4 | 4.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caersws 2–1–3 Gresford Ath
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 Wales Championship North | Gresford Ath | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Caersws |
| 08/11/25 Wales Championship North | Caersws | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Gresford Ath |
| 29/03/25 Wales Championship North | Gresford Ath | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Caersws |
| 28/12/24 Wales Championship North | Caersws | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gresford Ath |
| 24/02/24 Wales Championship North | Caersws | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Gresford Ath |
| 11/04/18 Wales Cymru Alliance | Caersws | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Gresford Ath |
Standings · Wales Championship North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Newtown | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Denbigh Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Porthmadog | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Holyhead Hotspur | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Caersws | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Mold Alexandra | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Rhyl | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Guilsfield | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Bangor 1876 FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | Ruthin Town FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Buckley Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | Penrhyncoch | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Gresford Ath | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | CPD Llanuwchllyn | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Caersws | Gresford Ath |
|---|---|---|
| Mold Alexandra | 2-2 D | 1-4 L |
| Guilsfield | 1-4 L | 0-4 L |
| Penrhyncoch | 1-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Rhyl | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Caersws (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caersws
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Denbigh Town Wales Championship North |
3-0 | 6-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/04 | Buckley Town Wales Championship North |
0-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Guilsfield Wales Championship North |
1-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 06/04 | Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 03/04 | Gresford Ath Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Llandudno Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 21/03 | Rhyl Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 14/03 | Holywell Town Wales Championship North |
0-3 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 07/03 | Airbus UK Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
Gresford Ath
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Newtown Wales Championship North |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Guilsfield Wales Championship North |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 11/04 | Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 1-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 07/04 | Rhyl Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | Caersws Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North |
0-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 20/03 | Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/03 | Newtown Wales Championship North |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 01/03 | Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 20/02 | Flint Mountain FC Wales Championship North |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caersws vs Gresford Ath?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Caersws win (62%). Probabilities: Caersws 62%, draw 20%, Gresford Ath 18%.
How many goals are expected in Caersws vs Gresford Ath?
The model expects 3.56 goals (Caersws 2.35 · Gresford Ath 1.21), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Caersws vs Gresford Ath?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.