Football · Wales Championship North · 15/08, 15:30

Prediction: Mold Alexandra vs Holyhead Hotspur

Team pages: Mold Alexandra · Holyhead Hotspur

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Mold Alexandra1.58

Holyhead Hotspur1.37

1X2

42% 26% 33%

Mold Alexandra Draw Holyhead Hotspur

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Mold Alexandra 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWLDDL

Holyhead Hotspur 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDWWWL

Head-to-head

Mold Alexandra 3–2–1 Holyhead Hotspur (6 last)

Holyhead Hotspur0-1Mold Alexandra
Mold Alexandra1-1Holyhead Hotspur
Mold Alexandra3-1Holyhead Hotspur
Mold Alexandra3-1Holyhead Hotspur
Holyhead Hotspur2-2Mold Alexandra
Mold Alexandra1-2Holyhead Hotspur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mold Alexandra 1518 · Holyhead Hotspur 1517

	Mold Alexandra	Draw	Holyhead Hotspur
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	42%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Mold Alexandra: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mold Alexandra	Holyhead Hotspur
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.2	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.1	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 2.10▲	Bet365 2.10
X	3.75 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	3.20 → 2.70▼	Pinn 2.98 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:36 +8’	1.85	3.75	3.20
06:48 +5’	2.10▲	3.60▼	2.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:40 +4’	2.10	3.54	2.89
06:51 +2’	2.03▼	3.60▲	2.98▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mold Alexandra 3–2–1 Holyhead Hotspur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Wales Championship North	Holyhead Hotspur	0-1 HT 0-0	Mold Alexandra
16/08/25 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	1-1 HT 0-0	Holyhead Hotspur
18/03/23 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	3-1	Holyhead Hotspur
08/10/22 Wales Cup	Mold Alexandra	3-1 HT 1-1	Holyhead Hotspur
01/10/22 Wales Championship North	Holyhead Hotspur	2-2	Mold Alexandra
28/01/17 Wales Cymru Alliance	Mold Alexandra	1-2	Holyhead Hotspur

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Newtown	2	2	0	0	8	0	6
2	Brickfield Rangers	2	2	0	0	7	2	6
3	Porthmadog	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Bala Town	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
5	Guilsfield	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
6	Caersws	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Denbigh Town	3	1	0	2	6	6	3
8	Bangor 1876 FC	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
8	Holyhead Hotspur	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
10	Ruthin Town FC	3	1	0	2	4	5	3
11	CPD Llanuwchllyn	2	1	0	1	3	6	3
12	Mold Alexandra	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
13	Rhyl	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
14	Buckley Town	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
15	Gresford Ath	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
16	Penrhyncoch	2	0	0	2	1	8	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mold Alexandra	Holyhead Hotspur
Guilsfield	2-3 L	1-0 W
Flint Mountain FC	3-1 W	2-1 W
Brickfield Rangers	2-1 W	1-2 L
Newtown	2-1 W	2-0 W
Gresford Ath	4-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Mold Alexandra (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Mold Alexandra

LWWWWWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-0	2-3	6	3	L
01/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
10/07	Holywell Town UK Friendlies	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
30/06	Airbus UK UK Friendlies	2-2	3-4	3	0	L
18/04	Flint Mountain FC Wales Championship North	3-0	3-1	6	2	W
11/04	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
03/04	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	2	1	W
28/03	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	2-0	4-1	8	3	W
21/03	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
13/03	Airbus UK Wales Championship North	0-3	0-8	2	1	L

Holyhead Hotspur

LWLLWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
31/07	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
18/04	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	4-1	5-1	6	2	W
03/04	Flint Mountain FC Wales Championship North	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
31/03	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
28/03	Newtown Wales Championship North	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
21/03	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
14/03	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
07/03	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
01/03	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mold Alexandra vs Holyhead Hotspur?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mold Alexandra win (42%). Probabilities: Mold Alexandra 42%, draw 26%, Holyhead Hotspur 33%.

How many goals are expected in Mold Alexandra vs Holyhead Hotspur?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Mold Alexandra 1.58 · Holyhead Hotspur 1.37), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Mold Alexandra vs Holyhead Hotspur?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.