Football · Wales Championship North · 15/08, 15:30

Prediction: Newtown vs Guilsfield

Team pages: Newtown · Guilsfield

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Newtown2.01

Guilsfield1.38

1X2

51% 23% 26%

Newtown Draw Guilsfield

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Newtown 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Guilsfield 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLWWDW

Head-to-head

Newtown 4–1–1 Guilsfield (6 last)

Newtown2-0Guilsfield
Guilsfield2-1Newtown
Newtown2-0Guilsfield
Newtown1-1Guilsfield
Newtown2-0Guilsfield
Guilsfield0-3Newtown

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newtown 1513 · Guilsfield 1500

	Newtown	Draw	Guilsfield
Our model	51%	23%	25%
Market	51%	23%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Newtown: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newtown	Guilsfield
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.7	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.1	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.90

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.92 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:39 +4’	1.75	3.90	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:40 +3’	1.71	3.69	3.96
06:51 +2’	1.92▲	3.47▼	3.37▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newtown 4–1–1 Guilsfield

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/02/26 Wales Championship North	Newtown	2-0 HT 2-0	Guilsfield
29/11/25 Wales Championship North	Guilsfield	2-1 HT 1-0	Newtown
09/07/24 UK Friendlies	Newtown	2-0 HT 1-0	Guilsfield
05/08/23 Wales League Cup	Newtown	1-1 HT 1-0	Guilsfield
02/12/17 Wales Cup	Newtown	2-0	Guilsfield
05/10/16 Wales League Cup	Guilsfield	0-3 HT 0-1	Newtown

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Newtown	2	2	0	0	8	0	6
2	Brickfield Rangers	2	2	0	0	7	2	6
3	Porthmadog	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Bala Town	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
5	Guilsfield	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
6	Caersws	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Denbigh Town	3	1	0	2	6	6	3
8	Bangor 1876 FC	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
8	Holyhead Hotspur	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
10	Ruthin Town FC	3	1	0	2	4	5	3
11	CPD Llanuwchllyn	2	1	0	1	3	6	3
12	Mold Alexandra	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
13	Rhyl	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
14	Buckley Town	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
15	Gresford Ath	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
16	Penrhyncoch	2	0	0	2	1	8	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newtown	Guilsfield
Gresford Ath	3-0 W	4-0 W
Llandudno	1-2 L	1-4 L
Holywell Town	0-6 L	4-4 D
Mold Alexandra	1-2 L	3-2 W
Rhyl	6-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Guilsfield (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newtown

WLWLLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	3-0	5-0	5	0	W
02/08	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
18/04	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-1	3-2	5	1	W
11/04	Llandudno Wales Championship North	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
08/04	Holywell Town Wales Championship North	0-5	0-6	5	3	L
03/04	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
28/03	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
24/03	Rhyl Wales Championship North	3-0	6-1	0	1	W
20/03	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-2	0-2	8	3	L
14/03	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

Guilsfield

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-1	3-2	5	3	W
01/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	0	4	D
18/04	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	2-0	4-0	5	8	W
11/04	Caersws Wales Championship North	3-1	4-1	4	4	W
06/04	Llandudno Wales Championship North	1-2	1-4	2	3	L
03/04	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-1	2-1	8	2	W
28/03	Airbus UK Wales Championship North	0-0	0-3	2	1	L
24/03	Flint Mountain FC Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
21/03	Holywell Town Wales Championship North	3-2	4-4	8	3	D
14/03	Llandudno Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newtown vs Guilsfield?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newtown win (51%). Probabilities: Newtown 51%, draw 23%, Guilsfield 26%.

How many goals are expected in Newtown vs Guilsfield?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Newtown 2.01 · Guilsfield 1.38), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Newtown vs Guilsfield?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.