Football · Wales Championship North · 21/08, 20:00

Prediction: Mold Alexandra vs Buckley Town

Team pages: Mold Alexandra · Buckley Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Mold Alexandra2.19

Buckley Town1.54

1X2

52% 23% 26%

Mold Alexandra Draw Buckley Town

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Mold Alexandra 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLDDLW

Buckley Town 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Mold Alexandra 3–1–2 Buckley Town (6 last)

Buckley Town2-2Mold Alexandra
Mold Alexandra1-2Buckley Town
Mold Alexandra3-1Buckley Town
Buckley Town1-2Mold Alexandra
Mold Alexandra1-2Buckley Town
Buckley Town0-3Mold Alexandra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mold Alexandra 1530 · Buckley Town 1406

	Mold Alexandra	Draw	Buckley Town
Our model	52%	22%	26%
Market	51%	23%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mold Alexandra (rating 1530 vs 1406).
H2H favours Mold Alexandra: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mold Alexandra	Buckley Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.4	1 / 3.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.7 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.2	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.90

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +4’	1.75	3.90	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mold Alexandra 3–1–2 Buckley Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/01/26 Wales Championship North	Buckley Town	2-2 HT 1-0	Mold Alexandra
27/09/25 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	1-2 HT 1-1	Buckley Town
12/04/25 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	3-1 HT 2-0	Buckley Town
01/04/25 Wales Championship North	Buckley Town	1-2 HT 1-2	Mold Alexandra
03/02/24 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	1-2 HT 0-1	Buckley Town
30/09/23 Wales Championship North	Buckley Town	0-3 HT 0-2	Mold Alexandra

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	3	3	0	0	12	2	9
2	Newtown	3	2	1	0	9	1	7
3	Porthmadog	3	2	1	0	5	2	7
4	Bangor 1876 FC	3	2	0	1	8	3	6
5	Bala Town	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
6	Guilsfield	3	1	2	0	5	4	5
7	Rhyl	3	1	1	1	5	4	4
8	Mold Alexandra	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
9	Caersws	3	1	1	1	5	6	4
10	Denbigh Town	3	1	0	2	6	6	3
11	Ruthin Town FC	3	1	0	2	4	5	3
12	Holyhead Hotspur	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
13	CPD Llanuwchllyn	3	1	0	2	3	11	3
14	Buckley Town	3	0	1	2	4	7	1
15	Penrhyncoch	2	0	0	2	1	8	0
16	Gresford Ath	3	0	0	3	0	9	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mold Alexandra	Buckley Town
Holyhead Hotspur	1-0 W	1-5 L
Caersws	2-2 D	2-3 L
Brickfield Rangers	2-1 W	0-6 L
Newtown	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Mold Alexandra (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Mold Alexandra

WWWWWLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
08/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-0	2-3	6	3	L
01/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
10/07	Holywell Town UK Friendlies	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
30/06	Airbus UK UK Friendlies	2-2	3-4	3	0	L
18/04	Flint Mountain FC Wales Championship North	3-0	3-1	6	2	W
11/04	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
03/04	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	2	1	W
28/03	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	2-0	4-1	8	3	W
21/03	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	3	7	W

Buckley Town

LWLLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	9	0	D
08/08	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	5	1	L
01/08	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-3	2-4	2	3	L
23/06	Llandudno UK Friendlies	0-3	0-6	2	0	L
18/04	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	1-4	1-5	4	2	L
13/04	Caersws Wales Championship North	2-0	2-3	2	6	L
03/04	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-4	0-6	7	1	L
27/03	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
20/03	Newtown Wales Championship North	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
13/03	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-2	1-4	11	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mold Alexandra vs Buckley Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mold Alexandra win (52%). Probabilities: Mold Alexandra 52%, draw 23%, Buckley Town 26%.

How many goals are expected in Mold Alexandra vs Buckley Town?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Mold Alexandra 2.19 · Buckley Town 1.54), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mold Alexandra vs Buckley Town?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.