Football · Austria Regionalliga South · 09/10, 19:00

Prediction: ATSV Wolfsberg vs Atus Velden

Team pages: ATSV Wolfsberg · Atus Velden

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

ATSV Wolfsberg1.38

Atus Velden1.7

1X2

31% 24% 45%

ATSV Wolfsberg Draw Atus Velden

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

ATSV Wolfsberg 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDLLLDLDWL

Atus Velden 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWWDWWDW

Head-to-head

ATSV Wolfsberg 1–4 Atus Velden (5 last)

Atus Velden4-0ATSV Wolfsberg
Atus Velden4-1ATSV Wolfsberg
ATSV Wolfsberg2-3Atus Velden
ATSV Wolfsberg3-2Atus Velden
Atus Velden2-0ATSV Wolfsberg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ATSV Wolfsberg 1444 · Atus Velden 1572

	ATSV Wolfsberg	Draw	Atus Velden
Our model	30%	26%	44%
Market	31%	23%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atus Velden (rating 1444 vs 1572).
H2H favours Atus Velden: 4-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ATSV Wolfsberg	Atus Velden
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.4	1.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.6	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.90

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 2.88▼	Bet365 2.88
X	4.20 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	1.57 → 2.00▲	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:20 +8’	4.20	4.20	1.57
20:24 +11’	2.88▼	3.90▼	2.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ATSV Wolfsberg 1–0–4 Atus Velden

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/08/26 Austria Regionalliga South	Atus Velden	4-0 HT 0-0	ATSV Wolfsberg
30/05/25 Austria Landesliga	Atus Velden	4-1 HT 1-0	ATSV Wolfsberg
25/10/24 Austria Landesliga	ATSV Wolfsberg	2-3 HT 1-0	Atus Velden
03/11/23 Austria Landesliga	ATSV Wolfsberg	3-2 HT 2-1	Atus Velden
28/07/23 Austria Landesliga	Atus Velden	2-0 HT 1-0	ATSV Wolfsberg

Standings · Austria Regionalliga South · Regionalliga Sud 26/27, Group Karnten

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atus Velden	10	6	4	0	18	8	22
2	Austria Klagenfurt	10	6	1	3	18	14	19
3	VST Volkermarkt	10	5	2	3	20	10	17
4	SK Treibach	10	5	2	3	18	11	17
5	WAC St Andra II	10	4	3	3	16	15	15
6	SVG Bleiburg	10	2	3	5	15	18	9
7	ATSV Wolfsberg	10	1	4	5	7	24	7
8	SV Donau Klagenfurt	10	0	3	7	8	20	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ATSV Wolfsberg	Atus Velden
VST Volkermarkt	1-4 L	0-0 D
SVG Bleiburg	1-0 W	4-2 W
WAC St Andra II	2-2 D	1-0 W
Austria Klagenfurt	0-2 L	2-2 D
SV Donau Klagenfurt	0-0 D	3-2 W
SK Treibach	0-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Atus Velden (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ATSV Wolfsberg

DDLLLDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	VST Volkermarkt Austria Regionalliga South	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
25/09	SVG Bleiburg Austria Regionalliga South	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
19/09	WAC St Andra II Austria Regionalliga South	2-1	2-2	4	7	D
11/09	Austria Klagenfurt Austria Regionalliga South	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
04/09	SV Donau Klagenfurt Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
28/08	SK Treibach Austria Regionalliga South	0-3	0-4	3	1	L
21/08	Atus Velden Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	0-4	–	–	L
14/08	VST Volkermarkt Austria Regionalliga South	0-2	0-5	4	3	L
08/08	SVG Bleiburg Austria Regionalliga South	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
31/07	WAC St Andra II Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	1-1	5	5	D

Atus Velden

WDDWWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	SK Treibach Austria Regionalliga South	1-1	2-1	5	8	W
25/09	VST Volkermarkt Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
19/09	SVG Bleiburg Austria Regionalliga South	2-1	4-2	–	–	W
13/09	WAC St Andra II Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
08/09	Austria Klagenfurt Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	2-2	5	8	D
29/08	SV Donau Klagenfurt Austria Regionalliga South	1-0	3-2	9	3	W
21/08	ATSV Wolfsberg Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	4-0	–	–	W
14/08	SK Treibach Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	0-0	11	7	D
07/08	VST Volkermarkt Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
31/07	SVG Bleiburg Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ATSV Wolfsberg vs Atus Velden?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atus Velden win (45%). Probabilities: ATSV Wolfsberg 31%, draw 24%, Atus Velden 45%.

How many goals are expected in ATSV Wolfsberg vs Atus Velden?

The model expects 3.08 goals (ATSV Wolfsberg 1.38 · Atus Velden 1.7), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in ATSV Wolfsberg vs Atus Velden?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.