Football · Austria Regionalliga South · 16/10, 19:00

Prediction: Atus Velden vs SV Donau Klagenfurt

Team pages: Atus Velden · SV Donau Klagenfurt

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Atus Velden2.36

SV Donau Klagenfurt0.61

1X2

76% 16% 8%

Atus Velden Draw SV Donau Klagenfurt

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Atus Velden 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DDWWDWWDWW

SV Donau Klagenfurt 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLDDLLLW

Head-to-head

Atus Velden 2–2–0 SV Donau Klagenfurt (4 last)

SV Donau Klagenfurt2-3Atus Velden
Atus Velden0-0SV Donau Klagenfurt
SV Donau Klagenfurt1-5Atus Velden
Atus Velden2-2SV Donau Klagenfurt

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atus Velden 1577 · SV Donau Klagenfurt 1445

	Atus Velden	Draw	SV Donau Klagenfurt
Our model	76%	17%	7%
Market	77%	15%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atus Velden (rating 1577 vs 1445).
H2H favours Atus Velden: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atus Velden	SV Donau Klagenfurt
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.9	1.9 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.8	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.17

X6.00

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.85

2 (+2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.17▼	Bet365 1.17
X	5.50 → 6.00▲	Bet365 6.00
2	7.50 → 11.00▲	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
05:50 +15’	1.25	5.50	7.50
08:01 +4’	1.17▼	6.00▲	11.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:12 +51’	1.16	5.97	10.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atus Velden 2–2–0 SV Donau Klagenfurt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Austria Regionalliga South	SV Donau Klagenfurt	2-3 HT 0-1	Atus Velden
12/04/25 Austria Landesliga	Atus Velden	0-0 HT 0-0	SV Donau Klagenfurt
07/04/24 Austria Landesliga	SV Donau Klagenfurt	1-5 HT 0-2	Atus Velden
15/08/23 Austria Landesliga	Atus Velden	2-2 HT 0-1	SV Donau Klagenfurt

Standings · Austria Regionalliga South · Regionalliga Sud 26/27, Group Karnten

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atus Velden	11	7	4	0	20	9	25
2	SK Treibach	11	6	2	3	23	15	20
3	Austria Klagenfurt	11	6	2	3	19	15	20
4	VST Volkermarkt	11	5	2	4	21	13	17
5	WAC St Andra II	11	4	3	4	20	20	15
6	SVG Bleiburg	11	2	4	5	16	19	10
7	ATSV Wolfsberg	11	1	4	6	8	26	7
8	SV Donau Klagenfurt	11	1	3	7	11	21	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atus Velden	SV Donau Klagenfurt
ATSV Wolfsberg	2-1 W	0-0 D
SK Treibach	2-1 W	0-0 D
VST Volkermarkt	0-0 D	3-1 W
SVG Bleiburg	4-2 W	1-3 L
WAC St Andra II	1-0 W	0-3 L
Austria Klagenfurt	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atus Velden (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atus Velden

DDWWDWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	ATSV Wolfsberg Austria Regionalliga South	0-1	2-1	9	5	W
02/10	SK Treibach Austria Regionalliga South	1-1	2-1	5	8	W
25/09	VST Volkermarkt Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
19/09	SVG Bleiburg Austria Regionalliga South	2-1	4-2	–	–	W
13/09	WAC St Andra II Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
08/09	Austria Klagenfurt Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	2-2	5	8	D
29/08	SV Donau Klagenfurt Austria Regionalliga South	1-0	3-2	9	3	W
21/08	ATSV Wolfsberg Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	4-0	–	–	W
14/08	SK Treibach Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	0-0	11	7	D
07/08	VST Volkermarkt Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	1-1	1	6	D

SV Donau Klagenfurt

LDLLDDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	VST Volkermarkt Austria Regionalliga South	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
03/10	SVG Bleiburg Austria Regionalliga South	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
26/09	WAC St Andra II Austria Regionalliga South	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
22/09	Austria Klagenfurt Austria Regionalliga South	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
11/09	SK Treibach Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
04/09	ATSV Wolfsberg Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
29/08	Atus Velden Austria Regionalliga South	0-1	2-3	3	3	L
21/08	VST Volkermarkt Austria Regionalliga South	1-3	3-5	4	5	L
15/08	SVG Bleiburg Austria Regionalliga South	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/08	WAC St Andra II Austria Regionalliga South	0-2	1-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atus Velden vs SV Donau Klagenfurt?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atus Velden win (76%). Probabilities: Atus Velden 76%, draw 16%, SV Donau Klagenfurt 8%.

How many goals are expected in Atus Velden vs SV Donau Klagenfurt?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Atus Velden 2.36 · SV Donau Klagenfurt 0.61), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Atus Velden vs SV Donau Klagenfurt?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.