Prediction: Mighty Wanderers vs MAFCO
Expected goals: 2.28 (Mighty Wanderers 1.42 · MAFCO 0.86). The model gives 49% home, 29% draw, 22% away. Under 2.25 goals (53%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Mighty Wanderers with 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses over 10 games; MAFCO has piled up 2-3-5 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 4 wins for Mighty Wanderers and 0 for MAFCO, with 2 draws.
| Mighty Wanderers | Draw | MAFCO | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 30% | 21% |
| Market | 50% | 28% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mighty Wanderers (rating 1595 vs 1456).
- H2H favours Mighty Wanderers: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mighty Wanderers | MAFCO | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 4.4 | 1.5 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mighty Wanderers 4–2–0 MAFCO
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/25 Malawi Super League | MAFCO | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Mighty Wanderers |
| 16/08/25 Malawi League Cup | Mighty Wanderers | 3-1 HT 0-0 | MAFCO |
| 15/05/25 Malawi Super League | Mighty Wanderers | 2-0 HT 2-0 | MAFCO |
| 27/11/24 Malawi Super League | Mighty Wanderers | 2-2 HT 2-0 | MAFCO |
| 21/07/24 Malawi Super League | MAFCO | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mighty Wanderers |
| 27/08/23 Malawi Super League | Mighty Wanderers | 1-0 HT 0-0 | MAFCO |
Standings · Malawi Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Silver Strikers | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 17 |
| 2 | Blue Eagles | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Big Bullets | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Mighty Wanderers | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Ekhaya FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Red Lions | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | Masters FC | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| 8 | Moyale Barracks | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 12 |
| 9 | Civil Service Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 11 |
| 10 | Mitundu Baptist FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 11 | MAFCO | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 12 | Karonga United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 9 |
| 13 | Chitipa United | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 9 |
| 14 | Creck SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| 15 | Dedza Dynamos | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 5 |
| 16 | Kamuzu Barracks | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mighty Wanderers | MAFCO |
|---|---|---|
| Dedza Dynamos | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Ekhaya FC | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Creck SC | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Chitipa United | 4-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Karonga United | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Silver Strikers | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Mitundu Baptist FC | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Big Bullets | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 1 L | 2 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Mighty Wanderers (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mighty Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Creck SC Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Chitipa United Malawi Super League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 27/05 | Karonga United Malawi Super League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 04/01 | Extreme FC Malawi Challenge Cup |
3-0 | 6-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
MAFCO
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 20/06 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Chitipa United Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Karonga United Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 04/01 | Blue Eagles Malawi Challenge Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 27/12 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mighty Wanderers vs MAFCO?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mighty Wanderers win (49%). Probabilities: Mighty Wanderers 49%, draw 29%, MAFCO 22%.
How many goals are expected in Mighty Wanderers vs MAFCO?
The model expects 2.28 goals (Mighty Wanderers 1.42 · MAFCO 0.86), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Mighty Wanderers vs MAFCO?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.