Prediction: Big Bullets vs Creck SC
Expected goals: 2.25 (Big Bullets 1.82 · Creck SC 0.43). The model gives 71% home, 21% draw, 8% away. Under 2.25 goals (52%) and not both to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-0.
Over its last 10 matches, Big Bullets sits at 5-5-0 (W-D-L), while Creck SC arrives on a 1-2-7 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for Big Bullets and 1 for Creck SC, with 2 draws.
| Big Bullets | Draw | Creck SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 22% | 7% |
| Market | 72% | 20% | 8% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Big Bullets (rating 1552 vs 1440).
- H2H favours Big Bullets: 3-2-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Big Bullets | Creck SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.1 | 0.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 4.9 | 3.4 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 1.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Big Bullets 3–2–1 Creck SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/25 Malawi Super League | Creck SC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Big Bullets |
| 26/04/25 Malawi Top 8 Cup | Creck SC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Big Bullets |
| 16/04/25 Malawi Super League | Big Bullets | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Creck SC |
| 12/04/25 Malawi Top 8 Cup | Big Bullets | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Creck SC |
| 25/09/24 Malawi Super League | Big Bullets | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Creck SC |
| 23/06/24 Malawi Super League | Creck SC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Big Bullets |
Standings · Malawi Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Silver Strikers | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 17 |
| 2 | Blue Eagles | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Big Bullets | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Mighty Wanderers | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Ekhaya FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Red Lions | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | Masters FC | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| 8 | Moyale Barracks | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 12 |
| 9 | Civil Service Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 11 |
| 10 | Mitundu Baptist FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 11 | MAFCO | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 12 | Karonga United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 9 |
| 13 | Chitipa United | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 9 |
| 14 | Creck SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| 15 | Dedza Dynamos | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 5 |
| 16 | Kamuzu Barracks | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 4 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Big Bullets | Creck SC |
|---|---|---|
| Masters FC | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Kamuzu Barracks | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Moyale Barracks | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Blue Eagles | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Red Lions | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Mighty Wanderers | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| MAFCO | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Civil Service Utd | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Dedza Dynamos | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 4 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Big Bullets (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Big Bullets
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 10/05 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 21/02 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Challenge Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
Creck SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 11/01 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Challenge Cup |
0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Big Bullets vs Creck SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Big Bullets win (71%). Probabilities: Big Bullets 71%, draw 21%, Creck SC 8%.
How many goals are expected in Big Bullets vs Creck SC?
The model expects 2.25 goals (Big Bullets 1.82 · Creck SC 0.43), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Big Bullets vs Creck SC?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.