Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 07/11, 15:00
Prediction: Chaves vs Penafiel
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.77Total
Chaves1.32
Penafiel1.46
1X2
Chaves
Draw
Penafiel
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Chaves
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Penafiel
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chaves
2–1–3
Penafiel
(6 last)
- Chaves0-1Penafiel
- Penafiel0-2Chaves
- Penafiel0-0Chaves
- Chaves0-1Penafiel
- Penafiel1-2Chaves
- Penafiel2-1Chaves
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penafiel (rating 1478 vs 1554).
- H2H favours Penafiel: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chaves | Penafiel | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.9 | 2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.6 | 2.1 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0 | 5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chaves 2–1–3 Penafiel
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/26 Portugal Segunda Liga | Chaves | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Penafiel |
| 30/08/25 Portugal Segunda Liga | Penafiel | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Chaves |
| 15/05/25 Portugal Segunda Liga | Penafiel | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Chaves |
| 04/01/25 Portugal Segunda Liga | Chaves | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Penafiel |
| 18/07/23 Europe Friendlies | Penafiel | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Chaves |
| 06/03/22 Portugal Segunda Liga | Penafiel | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Chaves |
Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting B | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Lusitania Lourosa | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Benfica B | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | Penafiel | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 16 |
| 5 | Academica | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | SC Farense | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 15 |
| 7 | Tondela | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 15 |
| 8 | Vizela | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 14 |
| 9 | UD Leiria | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 14 |
| 10 | AVS | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | SCU Torreense | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 13 | Leixoes | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 10 |
| 14 | Amarante | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 8 |
| 15 | Chaves | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 8 |
| 16 | FC Porto B | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 8 |
| 17 | Felgueiras 1932 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 7 |
| 18 | Feirense | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chaves | Penafiel |
|---|---|---|
| SC Farense | 0-4 L | 4-1 W |
| Felgueiras 1932 | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| AVS | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Sporting B | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Academica | 1-4 L | 4-1 W |
| Maritimo | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Penafiel (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chaves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Benfica B Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 23/10 | Vizela Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 11/10 | Lusitania Lourosa Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 04/10 | SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | AVS Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Academica Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-2 | 1-4 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 15/05 | Maritimo Portugal Segunda Liga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
Penafiel
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga |
3-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 09/10 | AVS Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Academica Portugal Segunda Liga |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 30/08 | FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 08/08 | Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Maritimo Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chaves vs Penafiel?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Penafiel win (39%). Probabilities: Chaves 33%, draw 28%, Penafiel 39%.
How many goals are expected in Chaves vs Penafiel?
The model expects 2.77 goals (Chaves 1.32 · Penafiel 1.46), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Penafiel?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.