Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: Tondela vs SC Farense

Team pages: Tondela · SC Farense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Tondela1.49

SC Farense1.09

1X2

45% 28% 26%

Tondela Draw SC Farense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tondela 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWLWD

SC Farense 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLDWWLDL

Head-to-head

Tondela 3–3 SC Farense (6 last)

SC Farense1-0Tondela
SC Farense3-1Tondela
Tondela1-0SC Farense
SC Farense1-0Tondela
Tondela2-0SC Farense
SC Farense1-2Tondela

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tondela	SC Farense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.3	3.2 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.5	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.97

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:06

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.95
X	3.39 → 3.42▲	Pinn 3.42
2	3.80 → 3.85▲	Pinn 3.85

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:04 +7’	1.95	3.39	3.80
15:02 +4’	1.95	3.42▲	3.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tondela 3–0–3 SC Farense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/09/23 Portugal League Cup	SC Farense	1-0 HT 1-0	Tondela
28/05/23 Portugal Segunda Liga	SC Farense	3-1 HT 3-1	Tondela
22/01/23 Portugal Segunda Liga	Tondela	1-0 HT 1-0	SC Farense
15/05/21 Portugal Primeira Liga	SC Farense	1-0 HT 0-0	Tondela
30/01/21 Portugal Primeira Liga	Tondela	2-0 HT 0-0	SC Farense
19/04/15 Portugal Segunda Liga	SC Farense	1-2 HT 1-0	Tondela

Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Penafiel	10	7	1	2	22	10	22
2	Sporting B	10	7	1	2	16	8	22
3	Benfica B	10	6	2	2	14	8	20
4	Lusitania Lourosa	10	5	4	1	15	9	19
5	Academica	10	5	1	4	16	13	16
6	Tondela	10	5	1	4	13	11	16
7	SC Farense	10	4	3	3	17	14	15
8	Vizela	10	4	3	3	12	11	15
9	UD Leiria	9	4	2	3	13	11	14
10	Portimonense	10	4	2	4	7	10	14
11	AVS	10	3	4	3	13	12	13
12	Leixoes	10	3	2	5	13	17	11
13	SCU Torreense	9	2	4	3	8	10	10
14	Amarante	10	2	3	5	9	13	9
15	Felgueiras 1932	10	1	5	4	12	15	8
16	FC Porto B	10	2	2	6	8	18	8
17	Chaves	10	2	2	6	11	21	8
18	Feirense	10	1	2	7	3	11	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tondela	SC Farense
Sporting B	1-1 D	1-2 L
Felgueiras 1932	3-2 W	1-1 D
AVS	1-2 L	0-0 D
SCU Torreense	1-0 W	2-1 W
FC Porto B	3-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tondela (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tondela

WLLLWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
01/11	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	2-1	3-2	10	2	W
25/10	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-2	12	8	L
10/10	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	8	10	W
12/09	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
05/09	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	3-0	6	7	W
28/08	UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
21/08	Academica Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-2	4	12	L
16/08	Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	7	8	L
08/08	Amarante Portugal Segunda Liga	2-1	2-1	3	7	W

SC Farense

WWDLDWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Benfica B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	2-3	6	3	L
01/11	Lusitania Lourosa Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
24/10	Penafiel Portugal Segunda Liga	0-3	1-4	8	6	L
11/10	Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-1	9	4	W
04/10	Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	4-0	6	3	W
13/09	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
30/08	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-2	3	8	L
24/08	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
16/08	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	3-1	9	4	W
09/08	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	2-1	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tondela vs SC Farense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tondela win (45%). Probabilities: Tondela 45%, draw 28%, SC Farense 26%.

How many goals are expected in Tondela vs SC Farense?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Tondela 1.49 · SC Farense 1.09), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tondela vs SC Farense?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.