Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 15/11, 16:30

Prediction: Penafiel vs Lusitania Lourosa

Team pages: Penafiel · Lusitania Lourosa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Penafiel1.53

Lusitania Lourosa1.07

1X2

47% 28% 25%

Penafiel Draw Lusitania Lourosa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Penafiel 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWLWWW

Lusitania Lourosa 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWDDDL

Head-to-head

Penafiel 1–2–0 Lusitania Lourosa (3 last)

Penafiel2-0Lusitania Lourosa
Lusitania Lourosa0-0Penafiel
Penafiel0-0Lusitania Lourosa

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Penafiel	Lusitania Lourosa
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.3	2.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	6 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.84

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:07

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.43 → 2.39▼	Pinn 2.39
X	2.69 → 2.73▲	Pinn 2.73
2	3.51 → 3.65▲	Pinn 3.65

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:10 +1’	2.43	2.69	3.51
15:00 +8’	2.39▼	2.73▲	3.65▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Penafiel 1–2–0 Lusitania Lourosa

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/02/26 Portugal Segunda Liga	Penafiel	2-0 HT 1-0	Lusitania Lourosa
13/09/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	Lusitania Lourosa	0-0 HT 0-0	Penafiel
22/07/19 Europe Friendlies	Penafiel	0-0 HT 0-0	Lusitania Lourosa

Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Penafiel	10	7	1	2	22	10	22
2	Sporting B	10	7	1	2	16	8	22
3	Benfica B	10	6	2	2	14	8	20
4	Lusitania Lourosa	10	5	4	1	15	9	19
5	Academica	10	5	1	4	16	13	16
6	Tondela	10	5	1	4	13	11	16
7	SC Farense	10	4	3	3	17	14	15
8	Vizela	10	4	3	3	12	11	15
9	UD Leiria	9	4	2	3	13	11	14
10	Portimonense	10	4	2	4	7	10	14
11	AVS	10	3	4	3	13	12	13
12	Leixoes	10	3	2	5	13	17	11
13	SCU Torreense	9	2	4	3	8	10	10
14	Amarante	10	2	3	5	9	13	9
15	Felgueiras 1932	10	1	5	4	12	15	8
16	FC Porto B	10	2	2	6	8	18	8
17	Chaves	10	2	2	6	11	21	8
18	Feirense	10	1	2	7	3	11	5

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Penafiel	Lusitania Lourosa
Chaves	3-2 W	1-1 D
Feirense	1-0 W	0-1 L
SC Farense	4-1 W	1-1 D
AVS	1-2 L	2-1 W
Felgueiras 1932	2-1 W	2-2 D
Academica	4-1 W	2-0 W
FC Porto B	3-0 W	2-0 W
Sporting B	2-0 W	2-1 W
SCU Torreense	2-2 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Penafiel (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Penafiel

LDWWWWLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	3-2	2	2	W
02/11	Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
24/10	SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga	3-0	4-1	1	6	W
09/10	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	1-2	8	5	L
12/09	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	Academica Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	4-1	2	9	W
30/08	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
23/08	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
15/08	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	2-2	2	8	D
08/08	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L

Lusitania Lourosa

WWDWWWDDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	12	8	L
01/11	SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
25/10	Felgueiras 1932 Portugal Segunda Liga	2-1	2-2	5	4	D
11/10	Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
14/09	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
07/09	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	2-1	7	7	W
29/08	Academica Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-0	1	9	W
22/08	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
16/08	Amarante Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
10/08	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-0	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Penafiel vs Lusitania Lourosa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Penafiel win (47%). Probabilities: Penafiel 47%, draw 28%, Lusitania Lourosa 25%.

How many goals are expected in Penafiel vs Lusitania Lourosa?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Penafiel 1.53 · Lusitania Lourosa 1.07), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Penafiel vs Lusitania Lourosa?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.