Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 09/11, 21:15

Prediction: SCU Torreense vs UD Leiria

Team pages: SCU Torreense · UD Leiria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

SCU Torreense1.67

UD Leiria1.32

1X2

44% 27% 29%

SCU Torreense Draw UD Leiria

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SCU Torreense 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDLWDLWD

UD Leiria 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWWWDLDW

Head-to-head

SCU Torreense 4–1–1 UD Leiria (6 last)

SCU Torreense3-1UD Leiria
SCU Torreense3-1UD Leiria
UD Leiria1-0SCU Torreense
UD Leiria1-3SCU Torreense
SCU Torreense2-1UD Leiria
SCU Torreense0-0UD Leiria

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SCU Torreense 1521 · UD Leiria 1529

	SCU Torreense	Draw	UD Leiria
Our model	45%	26%	29%
Market	44%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SCU Torreense: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SCU Torreense	UD Leiria
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.3	2.7 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.25

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.13
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.57 ★
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:17 +1’	2.10	3.25	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +6’	2.13	3.57	3.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SCU Torreense 4–1–1 UD Leiria

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Portugal Segunda Liga	SCU Torreense	3-1 HT 1-1	UD Leiria
11/01/26 Portugal Cup	SCU Torreense	3-1 HT 1-1	UD Leiria
29/08/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	UD Leiria	1-0 HT 1-0	SCU Torreense
06/04/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	UD Leiria	1-3 HT 1-1	SCU Torreense
10/11/24 Portugal Segunda Liga	SCU Torreense	2-1 HT 1-1	UD Leiria
03/08/24 Europe Friendlies	SCU Torreense	0-0 HT 0-0	UD Leiria

Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting B	9	7	0	2	15	7	21
2	Penafiel	9	6	1	2	19	8	19
3	Lusitania Lourosa	9	5	4	0	15	8	19
4	Benfica B	9	5	2	2	11	6	17
5	Academica	9	5	0	4	15	12	15
6	SC Farense	9	4	3	2	15	11	15
7	Tondela	9	5	0	4	12	10	15
8	Vizela	9	4	2	3	10	9	14
9	UD Leiria	9	4	2	3	13	11	14
10	AVS	9	3	3	3	11	10	12
11	Portimonense	9	3	2	4	6	10	11
12	SCU Torreense	9	2	4	3	8	10	10
13	Leixoes	9	3	1	5	10	14	10
14	Amarante	9	2	2	5	8	12	8
15	Chaves	9	2	2	5	9	18	8
16	FC Porto B	9	2	2	5	8	17	8
17	Felgueiras 1932	9	1	4	4	9	12	7
18	Feirense	9	0	2	7	2	11	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SCU Torreense	UD Leiria
Portimonense	0-0 D	1-0 W
Amarante	1-0 W	2-2 D
Tondela	0-1 L	2-0 W
Leixoes	0-0 D	4-2 W
Benfica B	2-0 W	1-2 L
Vizela	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: UD Leiria (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SCU Torreense

WLDDLWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
26/10	Amarante Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
10/10	Tondela Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	2	10	L
11/09	Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
05/09	Benfica B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
29/08	Vizela Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	0-3	8	4	L
22/08	Lusitania Lourosa Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
15/08	Penafiel Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	2-2	3	8	D
09/08	SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
16/05	Vizela Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	4-0	3	3	W

UD Leiria

DLLWWWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	AVS Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
25/10	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	1-1	9	7	D
11/10	Academica Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
13/09	Amarante Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	2-2	5	3	D
06/09	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
28/08	Tondela Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
22/08	Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga	2-1	4-2	5	6	W
15/08	Benfica B Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
09/08	Vizela Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
17/05	Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-2	9	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SCU Torreense vs UD Leiria?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SCU Torreense win (44%). Probabilities: SCU Torreense 44%, draw 27%, UD Leiria 29%.

How many goals are expected in SCU Torreense vs UD Leiria?

The model expects 2.99 goals (SCU Torreense 1.67 · UD Leiria 1.32), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SCU Torreense vs UD Leiria?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.