Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 09/10, 20:30

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen

Team pages: Borussia Dortmund · Werder Bremen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

Borussia Dortmund2.51

Werder Bremen1.01

1X2

69% 18% 13%

Borussia Dortmund Draw Werder Bremen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Borussia Dortmund 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWWWWW

Werder Bremen 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLLWDW

Head-to-head

Borussia Dortmund 4–2–0 Werder Bremen (6 last)

Werder Bremen0-2Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund3-0Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund2-2Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen0-0Borussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen1-2Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund1-0Werder Bremen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Borussia Dortmund 1604 · Werder Bremen 1498

	Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Werder Bremen
Our model	69%	18%	12%
Market	69%	18%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Borussia Dortmund (rating 1604 vs 1498).
H2H favours Borussia Dortmund: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Borussia Dortmund	Werder Bremen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.9	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.36

X5.25

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Pinn 1.38
X	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.52 ★
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.7% Pinnacle margin 4.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:47 +5’	1.36	5.25	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:30 +321’	1.38	5.52	7.08

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Borussia Dortmund 4–2–0 Werder Bremen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Werder Bremen	0-2 HT 0-0	Borussia Dortmund
13/01/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia Dortmund	3-0 HT 1-0	Werder Bremen
25/01/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia Dortmund	2-2 HT 1-0	Werder Bremen
31/08/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Werder Bremen	0-0 HT 0-0	Borussia Dortmund
09/03/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Werder Bremen	1-2 HT 0-2	Borussia Dortmund
20/10/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia Dortmund	1-0 HT 0-0	Werder Bremen

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	12
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	14	2	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	10
4	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	7
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10	6	7
7	Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	5
11	Schalke	4	1	2	1	3	4	5
12	Paderborn	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
13	Cologne	4	1	1	2	6	9	4
14	TSG Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	3
16	Hamburg	4	1	0	3	2	13	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	1
18	Borussia M'gladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Borussia Dortmund	Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart	1-0 W	1-1 D
TSG Hoffenheim	3-2 W	0-1 L
Hamburg	2-0 W	3-1 W
SC Freiburg	4-0 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Borussia Dortmund (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Borussia Dortmund

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
12/09	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
05/09	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	3-2	3	6	W
29/08	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
16/05	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	2-0	5	0	W
08/05	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	3-2	6	3	W
03/05	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
26/04	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	3-0	4-0	5	1	W
18/04	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
11/04	Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	0-1	4	3	L

Werder Bremen

LWDLLLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	3-2	2	4	W
12/09	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/09	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	3-1	2	1	W
30/08	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-4	5	2	L
16/05	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-2	4	0	L
09/05	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
02/05	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	8	2	L
26/04	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
18/04	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	3-1	7	8	W
12/04	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-3	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Borussia Dortmund win (69%). Probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 69%, draw 18%, Werder Bremen 13%.

How many goals are expected in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?

The model expects 3.52 goals (Borussia Dortmund 2.51 · Werder Bremen 1.01), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.