Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 10/10, 15:30

Prediction: TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg

Team pages: TSG Hoffenheim · Hamburg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.85Total

TSG Hoffenheim2.61

Hamburg1.24

1X2

66% 19% 15%

TSG Hoffenheim Draw Hamburg

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

TSG Hoffenheim 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLLLWL

Hamburg 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWDLLLW

Head-to-head

TSG Hoffenheim 3–1–2 Hamburg (6 last)

Hamburg1-2TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim4-1Hamburg
TSG Hoffenheim2-0Hamburg
Hamburg3-0TSG Hoffenheim
Hamburg2-1TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim2-2Hamburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TSG Hoffenheim 1497 · Hamburg 1474

	TSG Hoffenheim	Draw	Hamburg
Our model	66%	18%	15%
Market	66%	20%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.85 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours TSG Hoffenheim: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TSG Hoffenheim	Hamburg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.1	1 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 6.5	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.75

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.252.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Pinn 1.44
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.90
2	6.25 → 6.25	Pinn 7.09 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 3.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:29 +2’	1.42	4.75	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:30 +662’	1.45	4.78	6.80
07:26 +8’	1.44▼	4.82▲	6.92▲
08:15 +42’	1.44▼	4.84▲	6.98▲
10:52 +111’	1.44▼	4.86▲	7.01▲
15:32 +1’	1.44▲	4.90▲	7.09▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TSG Hoffenheim 3–1–2 Hamburg

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Hamburg	1-2 HT 1-2	TSG Hoffenheim
13/12/25 Germany Bundesliga I	TSG Hoffenheim	4-1 HT 2-0	Hamburg
14/04/18 Germany Bundesliga I	TSG Hoffenheim	2-0 HT 2-0	Hamburg
26/11/17 Germany Bundesliga I	Hamburg	3-0 HT 1-0	TSG Hoffenheim
08/04/17 Germany Bundesliga I	Hamburg	2-1 HT 1-1	TSG Hoffenheim
20/11/16 Germany Bundesliga I	TSG Hoffenheim	2-2 HT 1-1	Hamburg

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	12
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	14	2	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	10
4	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	7
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10	6	7
7	Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	5
11	Schalke	4	1	2	1	3	4	5
12	Paderborn	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
13	Cologne	4	1	1	2	6	9	4
14	TSG Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	3
16	Hamburg	4	1	0	3	2	13	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	1
18	Borussia M'gladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TSG Hoffenheim	Hamburg
VfB Stuttgart	2-1 W	0-4 L
Borussia Dortmund	2-3 L	0-2 L
Cologne	2-3 L	2-1 W
Werder Bremen	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: TSG Hoffenheim (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TSG Hoffenheim

DWWDWLLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	5	1	L
12/09	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-1	5	1	W
05/09	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-3	10	6	L
29/08	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-3	7	2	L
16/05	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-4	9	10	L
09/05	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
02/05	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	3-3	4	5	D
25/04	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	2-1	9	6	W
18/04	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
10/04	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-2	2-2	4	8	D

Hamburg

LLLWWDLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
13/09	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-5	7	3	L
06/09	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-5	4	3	L
29/08	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-2	1	4	L
16/05	Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
10/05	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	3-2	2	4	W
02/05	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
25/04	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	1-2	4	6	L
18/04	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	1-3	3	8	L
12/04	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-4	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a TSG Hoffenheim win (66%). Probabilities: TSG Hoffenheim 66%, draw 19%, Hamburg 15%.

How many goals are expected in TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg?

The model expects 3.85 goals (TSG Hoffenheim 2.61 · Hamburg 1.24), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.