Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 10/10, 15:30
Prediction: Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
Team pages: Augsburg · Bayern Munich
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.42Total
Augsburg1.21
Bayern Munich3.21
1X2
Augsburg
Draw
Bayern Munich
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-3 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Augsburg
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Bayern Munich
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Augsburg
1–5
Bayern Munich
(6 last)
- Bayern Munich1-2Augsburg
- Augsburg2-3Bayern Munich
- Augsburg1-3Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich3-0Augsburg
- Augsburg2-3Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich3-1Augsburg
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Augsburg 1565 · Bayern Munich 1668
| Augsburg | Draw | Bayern Munich | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 14% | 76% |
| Market | 9% | 13% | 78% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.42 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayern Munich (rating 1565 vs 1668).
- H2H favours Bayern Munich: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Augsburg | Bayern Munich | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.6 | 3.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5 | 2.7 / 7.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Augsburg 1–0–5 Bayern Munich
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Augsburg |
| 30/08/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Augsburg | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Bayern Munich |
| 04/04/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Augsburg | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Bayern Munich |
| 22/11/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Augsburg |
| 27/01/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Augsburg | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Bayern Munich |
| 27/08/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Augsburg |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 | Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Cologne | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 4 |
| 14 | TSG Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 3 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| 16 | Hamburg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Augsburg | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| Schalke | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Union Berlin | 0-4 L | 7-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Augsburg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 10/04 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
2-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
Bayern Munich
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
3-0 | 7-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 28/08 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 3-3 | 13 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
0-3 | 4-3 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
3-1 | 4-2 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 11/04 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bayern Munich win (77%). Probabilities: Augsburg 9%, draw 14%, Bayern Munich 77%.
How many goals are expected in Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
The model expects 4.42 goals (Augsburg 1.21 · Bayern Munich 3.21), with a 53% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.