Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 10/10, 15:30
Prediction: Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen
Team pages: Mainz · Bayer Leverkusen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.49Total
Mainz1.64
Bayer Leverkusen1.86
1X2
Mainz
Draw
Bayer Leverkusen
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Mainz
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Bayer Leverkusen
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mainz
0–2–4
Bayer Leverkusen
(6 last)
- Bayer Leverkusen1-1Mainz
- Mainz3-4Bayer Leverkusen
- Mainz2-2Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen1-0Mainz
- Bayer Leverkusen2-1Mainz
- Mainz0-3Bayer Leverkusen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mainz 1577 · Bayer Leverkusen 1593
| Mainz | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| Market | 33% | 25% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Bayer Leverkusen: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mainz | Bayer Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.6 | 2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.7 | 3.4 / 7.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mainz 0–2–4 Bayer Leverkusen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayer Leverkusen | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Mainz |
| 18/10/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Mainz | 3-4 HT 1-3 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 17/05/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Mainz | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 14/01/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayer Leverkusen | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Mainz |
| 23/02/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Mainz |
| 30/09/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Mainz | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Bayer Leverkusen |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 | Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Cologne | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 4 |
| 14 | TSG Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 3 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| 16 | Hamburg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mainz | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburg | 5-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Union Berlin | 1-3 L | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mainz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 4-3 | 4 | 11 | W |
| 12/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
3-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 12/04 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
Bayer Leverkusen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-2 | 14 | 2 | D |
| 05/09 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bayer Leverkusen win (42%). Probabilities: Mainz 33%, draw 24%, Bayer Leverkusen 42%.
How many goals are expected in Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The model expects 3.49 goals (Mainz 1.64 · Bayer Leverkusen 1.86), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.