Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 11/10, 15:30

Prediction: Cologne vs Borussia M'gladbach

Team pages: Cologne · Borussia M'gladbach

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.7Total

Cologne2.08

Borussia M'gladbach1.63

1X2

47% 24% 29%

Cologne Draw Borussia M'gladbach

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Cologne 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLDLLWLDL

Borussia M'gladbach 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDDWLWLLLL

Head-to-head

Cologne 1–3–2 Borussia M'gladbach (6 last)

Cologne3-3Borussia M'gladbach
Borussia M'gladbach3-1Cologne
Borussia M'gladbach3-3Cologne
Cologne3-1Borussia M'gladbach
Cologne0-0Borussia M'gladbach
Borussia M'gladbach5-2Cologne

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cologne 1508 · Borussia M'gladbach 1556

	Cologne	Draw	Borussia M'gladbach
Our model	48%	23%	30%
Market	47%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Borussia M'gladbach (rating 1508 vs 1556).
H2H favours Borussia M'gladbach: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cologne	Borussia M'gladbach
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.3	1.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.8	2.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.80

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.03
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.15 ★
2	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.26

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:56	2.00	3.80	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:33 +564’	2.03	4.15	3.26

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cologne 1–3–2 Borussia M'gladbach

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Cologne	3-3 HT 2-2	Borussia M'gladbach
08/11/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia M'gladbach	3-1 HT 1-0	Cologne
09/03/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia M'gladbach	3-3 HT 1-1	Cologne
22/10/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Cologne	3-1 HT 1-0	Borussia M'gladbach
02/04/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Cologne	0-0 HT 0-0	Borussia M'gladbach
09/10/22 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia M'gladbach	5-2 HT 2-1	Cologne

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	12
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	14	2	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	10
4	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	7
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10	6	7
7	Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	5
11	Schalke	4	1	2	1	3	4	5
12	Paderborn	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
13	Cologne	4	1	1	2	6	9	4
14	TSG Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	3
16	Hamburg	4	1	0	3	2	13	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	1
18	Borussia M'gladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cologne

WDLDLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
12/09	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
04/09	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-4	8	4	L
29/08	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	3-2	6	2	W
16/05	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I	1-3	1-5	5	2	L
10/05	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	1-3	6	4	L
02/05	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
25/04	Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
17/04	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
12/04	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	3-1	8	6	W

Borussia M'gladbach

LDDWLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	3-4	6	11	L
12/09	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-5	2	5	L
05/09	Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	3-4	13	4	L
29/08	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
16/05	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	4-0	2	10	W
09/05	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	2	4	L
03/05	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
25/04	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
19/04	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
11/04	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-1	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cologne vs Borussia M'gladbach?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cologne win (47%). Probabilities: Cologne 47%, draw 24%, Borussia M'gladbach 29%.

How many goals are expected in Cologne vs Borussia M'gladbach?

The model expects 3.7 goals (Cologne 2.08 · Borussia M'gladbach 1.63), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cologne vs Borussia M'gladbach?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.