Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 07/11, 15:30
Prediction: RB Leipzig vs Augsburg
Team pages: RB Leipzig · Augsburg
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.96Total
RB Leipzig2.61
Augsburg1.35
1X2
RB Leipzig
Draw
Augsburg
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
RB Leipzig
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Augsburg
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
RB Leipzig
4–2–0
Augsburg
(6 last)
- RB Leipzig2-1Augsburg
- Augsburg0-6RB Leipzig
- Augsburg0-0RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig4-0Augsburg
- Augsburg2-2RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig3-0Augsburg
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · RB Leipzig 1553 · Augsburg 1513
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Augsburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| Market | 63% | 20% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RB Leipzig (rating 1553 vs 1513).
- H2H favours RB Leipzig: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| RB Leipzig | Augsburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.6 | 2.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.9 | 2.7 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · RB Leipzig 4–2–0 Augsburg
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Augsburg |
| 25/10/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Augsburg | 0-6 HT 0-4 | RB Leipzig |
| 14/02/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Augsburg | 0-0 HT 0-0 | RB Leipzig |
| 28/09/24 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Augsburg |
| 10/02/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Augsburg | 2-2 HT 1-1 | RB Leipzig |
| 16/09/23 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Augsburg |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 15 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 14 | 15 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 13 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 13 |
| 8 | Mainz | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 10 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 9 |
| 10 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 9 |
| 11 | TSG Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 9 |
| 12 | Paderborn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 9 |
| 13 | Hamburg | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 9 |
| 14 | Cologne | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 15 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 8 |
| 16 | Schalke | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 6 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Schalke | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Elversberg | 4-0 W | 3-4 L |
| Bayern Munich | 1-6 L | 2-2 D |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 6-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Werder Bremen | 1-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Borussia M'gladbach | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| SC Freiburg | 1-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 4 L | 3 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Augsburg (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
RB Leipzig
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 24/10 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
0-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 10/10 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
4-0 | 6-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
Augsburg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 17/10 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-3 | 3-4 | 12 | 7 | L |
| 10/10 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in RB Leipzig vs Augsburg?
According to our model, the most likely result is a RB Leipzig win (63%). Probabilities: RB Leipzig 63%, draw 19%, Augsburg 17%.
How many goals are expected in RB Leipzig vs Augsburg?
The model expects 3.96 goals (RB Leipzig 2.61 · Augsburg 1.35), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Augsburg?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.