Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 06/11, 20:30
Prediction: Hamburg vs Borussia M'gladbach
Team pages: Hamburg · Borussia M'gladbach
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.12Total
Hamburg1.65
Borussia M'gladbach1.47
1X2
Hamburg
Draw
Borussia M'gladbach
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Hamburg
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Borussia M'gladbach
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hamburg
2–2–2
Borussia M'gladbach
(6 last)
- Hamburg0-0Borussia M'gladbach
- Borussia M'gladbach0-0Hamburg
- Hamburg2-1Borussia M'gladbach
- Borussia M'gladbach3-1Hamburg
- Hamburg2-1Borussia M'gladbach
- Hamburg1-2Borussia M'gladbach
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hamburg 1500 · Borussia M'gladbach 1479
| Hamburg | Draw | Borussia M'gladbach | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Market | 41% | 25% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hamburg | Borussia M'gladbach | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.2 | 1.6 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.7 | 2.1 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 5.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hamburg 2–2–2 Borussia M'gladbach
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Hamburg | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Borussia M'gladbach |
| 24/08/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia M'gladbach | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Hamburg |
| 12/05/18 Germany Bundesliga I | Hamburg | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Borussia M'gladbach |
| 15/12/17 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia M'gladbach | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Hamburg |
| 12/03/17 Germany Bundesliga I | Hamburg | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Borussia M'gladbach |
| 01/03/17 Germany DFB Pokal | Hamburg | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Borussia M'gladbach |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 15 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 14 | 15 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 13 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 13 |
| 8 | Mainz | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 10 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 9 |
| 10 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 9 |
| 11 | TSG Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 9 |
| 12 | Paderborn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 9 |
| 13 | Hamburg | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 9 |
| 14 | Cologne | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 15 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 8 |
| 16 | Schalke | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 6 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hamburg | Borussia M'gladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Paderborn | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Cologne | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| RB Leipzig | 0-5 L | 0-3 L |
| Mainz | 0-5 L | 3-4 L |
| SC Freiburg | 3-2 W | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hamburg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 24/10 | Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 17/10 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-5 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
Borussia M'gladbach
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 23/10 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/10 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 11/10 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 3-4 | 6 | 11 | L |
| 12/09 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-4 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 09/05 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hamburg vs Borussia M'gladbach?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hamburg win (41%). Probabilities: Hamburg 41%, draw 25%, Borussia M'gladbach 33%.
How many goals are expected in Hamburg vs Borussia M'gladbach?
The model expects 3.12 goals (Hamburg 1.65 · Borussia M'gladbach 1.47), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Hamburg vs Borussia M'gladbach?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.