Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 07/11, 15:30

Prediction: Mainz vs Bayern Munich

Team pages: Mainz · Bayern Munich

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.38Total

Mainz1.53

Bayern Munich2.85

1X2

19% 17% 65%

Mainz Draw Bayern Munich

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Mainz 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Bayern Munich 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWDWWD

Head-to-head

Mainz 1–1–4 Bayern Munich (6 last)

Mainz3-4Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich2-2Mainz
Bayern Munich3-0Mainz
Mainz2-1Bayern Munich
Mainz0-4Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich8-1Mainz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mainz 1482 · Bayern Munich 1640

	Mainz	Draw	Bayern Munich
Our model	18%	18%	64%
Market	19%	16%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 4.38 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayern Munich (rating 1482 vs 1640).
H2H favours Bayern Munich: 4-1-1.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mainz	Bayern Munich
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2	3.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	1.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.6	3.1 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.00

X5.75

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.98

2 (-1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 41.93

Under 41.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00
X	6.00 → 5.75▼	Pinn 6.03 ★
2	1.40 → 1.45▲	Pinn 1.47

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.4% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +16’	5.50	6.00	1.40
01:14 +10’	5.00▼	5.75▼	1.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:54 +33’	4.72	6.03	1.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mainz 1–1–4 Bayern Munich

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Mainz	3-4 HT 3-0	Bayern Munich
14/12/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Bayern Munich	2-2 HT 1-1	Mainz
26/04/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Bayern Munich	3-0 HT 2-0	Mainz
14/12/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Mainz	2-1 HT 1-0	Bayern Munich
30/10/24 Germany DFB Pokal	Mainz	0-4 HT 0-4	Bayern Munich
09/03/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Bayern Munich	8-1 HT 3-1	Mainz

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	8	5	3	0	27	8	18
2	Borussia Dortmund	8	5	3	0	14	6	18
3	SC Freiburg	8	5	1	2	18	10	16
4	RB Leipzig	8	5	0	3	22	11	15
5	Werder Bremen	8	4	3	1	17	14	15
6	Bayer Leverkusen	8	4	1	3	18	16	13
7	Elversberg	8	4	1	3	16	16	13
8	Mainz	8	3	1	4	17	17	10
9	Augsburg	8	2	3	3	18	15	9
10	VfB Stuttgart	8	3	0	5	14	15	9
11	TSG Hoffenheim	8	3	0	5	14	16	9
12	Paderborn	8	2	3	3	6	9	9
13	Hamburg	7	3	0	4	6	16	9
14	Cologne	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
15	Eintracht Frankfurt	7	2	2	3	10	17	8
16	Schalke	8	1	3	4	4	9	6
17	Union Berlin	7	1	3	3	6	18	6
18	Borussia M'gladbach	8	1	1	6	11	22	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mainz	Bayern Munich
Elversberg	1-4 L	2-1 W
Schalke	1-0 W	0-0 D
Union Berlin	1-3 L	7-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bayern Munich (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mainz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I	0-3	1-4	11	5	L
24/10	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	2-3	6	4	L
17/10	Schalke Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
10/10	Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I	2-2	3-4	4	3	L
19/09	Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	4-3	4	11	W
12/09	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
06/09	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	5-0	5	3	W
29/08	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-0	11	3	D
16/05	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
10/05	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-3	7	3	L

Bayern Munich

WWWDWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
25/10	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
17/10	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	3-0	6-1	11	1	W
10/10	Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	2-2	9	3	D
18/09	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	3-0	7-0	9	4	W
13/09	Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	2-1	9	2	W
05/09	Schalke Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
28/08	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	5-1	9	4	W
16/05	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	3-1	5-1	5	2	W
09/05	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mainz vs Bayern Munich?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bayern Munich win (65%). Probabilities: Mainz 19%, draw 17%, Bayern Munich 65%.

How many goals are expected in Mainz vs Bayern Munich?

The model expects 4.38 goals (Mainz 1.53 · Bayern Munich 2.85), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Mainz vs Bayern Munich?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.