Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 07/11, 18:30
Prediction: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
Team pages: VfB Stuttgart · Werder Bremen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.85Total
VfB Stuttgart2.5
Werder Bremen1.35
1X2
VfB Stuttgart
Draw
Werder Bremen
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
VfB Stuttgart
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Werder Bremen
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
VfB Stuttgart
2–2–2
Werder Bremen
(6 last)
- VfB Stuttgart1-1Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen0-4VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart1-2Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen2-2VfB Stuttgart
- Werder Bremen2-1VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart2-0Werder Bremen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · VfB Stuttgart 1563 · Werder Bremen 1490
| VfB Stuttgart | Draw | Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 20% | 19% |
| Market | 61% | 20% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.85 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VfB Stuttgart (rating 1563 vs 1490).
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.8 | 1.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.2 | 1.3 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0 | 2.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · VfB Stuttgart 2–2–2 Werder Bremen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Germany Bundesliga I | VfB Stuttgart | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Werder Bremen |
| 14/12/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Werder Bremen | 0-4 HT 0-2 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 13/04/25 Germany Bundesliga I | VfB Stuttgart | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Werder Bremen |
| 30/11/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Werder Bremen | 2-2 HT 1-1 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 21/04/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Werder Bremen | 2-1 HT 1-0 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 02/12/23 Germany Bundesliga I | VfB Stuttgart | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Werder Bremen |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 15 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 14 | 15 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 13 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 13 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 11 |
| 9 | Mainz | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 10 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 9 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 9 |
| 12 | TSG Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 9 |
| 13 | Cologne | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
| 14 | Paderborn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 9 |
| 15 | Hamburg | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 9 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 7 |
| 17 | Schalke | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Paderborn | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Borussia Dortmund | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Cologne | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 3 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
VfB Stuttgart
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 23/10 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 17/10 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 10/10 | Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 19/09 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 04/09 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 4-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
Werder Bremen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 24/10 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 17/10 | Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 09/10 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/08 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
According to our model, the most likely result is a VfB Stuttgart win (61%). Probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 61%, draw 20%, Werder Bremen 19%.
How many goals are expected in VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
The model expects 3.85 goals (VfB Stuttgart 2.5 · Werder Bremen 1.35), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.