Football · Wales Championship South · 31/07, 20:45

Prediction: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Baglan Dragons

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC1.99

Baglan Dragons1.3

1X2

53% 23% 24%

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Draw Baglan Dragons

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Baglan Dragons 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 2–1–2 Baglan Dragons (5 last)

Baglan Dragons1-1Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC2-1Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons2-0Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC0-1Baglan Dragons
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC3-1Baglan Dragons

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1459 · Baglan Dragons 1416

	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	Draw	Baglan Dragons
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	53%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Trethomas Bluebirds AFC (rating 1459 vs 1416).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	Baglan Dragons
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.9	0.4 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.5	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.5	1.9 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.90

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.70▼	Pinn 1.71
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.88 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:41 +31’	1.73	3.90	3.60
15:54 +4’	1.70▼	3.90	3.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:50 +2’	1.71	3.77	3.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 2–1–2 Baglan Dragons

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	1-1 HT 1-0	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
20/12/25 Wales Championship South	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	2-1 HT 1-1	Baglan Dragons
01/03/25 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	2-0 HT 1-0	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
22/11/24 Wales Championship South	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	0-1 HT 0-0	Baglan Dragons
02/08/24 Wales League Cup	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	3-1 HT 1-0	Baglan Dragons

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aberystwyth	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Afan Lido	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Baglan Dragons	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Caerau Ely	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Caerphilly Athletic FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cardiff Draconians	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Carmarthen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Llanelli Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Llantwit Major	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newport City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pontardawe Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pontypridd Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Swansea University	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Treowen Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ynyshir Albions	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	Baglan Dragons
Pontypridd Utd	4-2 W	0-2 L
Newport City FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Carmarthen	4-5 L	0-7 L
Cambrian United	2-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/07	Barry Town UK Friendlies	0-2	1-5	2	1	L
23/06	Penybont UK Friendlies	0-2	0-3	0	0	L
18/04	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
04/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	2-2	4-4	4	4	D
28/03	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-2	2-2	9	5	D
20/03	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-1	4-2	5	5	W
14/03	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	6	7	L
09/03	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
06/03	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-2	4-5	2	4	L
01/03	Cambrian United Wales Championship South	1-1	2-4	4	5	L

Baglan Dragons

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
03/04	Cambrian United Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
28/03	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-2	0-7	3	0	L
24/03	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
20/03	Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
17/03	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	6	6	L
14/03	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-2	0-5	2	6	L
06/03	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
21/02	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
17/02	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	0-1	0-3	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Baglan Dragons?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Trethomas Bluebirds AFC win (53%). Probabilities: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 53%, draw 23%, Baglan Dragons 24%.

How many goals are expected in Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Baglan Dragons?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1.99 · Baglan Dragons 1.3), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Baglan Dragons?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.