Football · Wales Championship South · 07/08, 20:45
Prediction: Llanelli Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Team pages: Llanelli Town · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.86Total
Llanelli Town1.63
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC2.24
1X2
Llanelli Town
Draw
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Llanelli Town
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Llanelli Town
1–1–0
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
(2 last)
- Llanelli Town1-1Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
- Trethomas Bluebirds AFC1-4Llanelli Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Llanelli Town 1404 · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1465
| Llanelli Town | Draw | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 22% | 51% |
| Market | 26% | 24% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.86 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Trethomas Bluebirds AFC (rating 1404 vs 1465).
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Llanelli Town | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 3 | 1.7 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.7 | 0.5 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/10/70% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 2.2 | 1.6 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Llanelli Town 1–1–0 Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/25 Wales Championship South | Llanelli Town | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC |
| 07/09/24 Wales Championship South | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Llanelli Town |
Standings · Wales Championship South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aberystwyth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Newport City FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Pontardawe Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Pure Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Carmarthen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Pontypridd Utd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Ynyshir Albions | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Baglan Dragons | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Caerau Ely | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 | Treowen Stars | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Cardiff Draconians | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Afan Lido | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 | Llanelli Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 | Caerphilly Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Llanelli Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Newport City FC Wales Championship South |
1-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Haverfordwest County UK Friendlies |
0-6 | 0-8 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | Bala Town Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/03 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 13/03 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 27/02 | Bala Town Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 20/02 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 13/02 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 14/07 | Barry Town UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 23/06 | Penybont UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 04/04 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
2-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 20/03 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 14/03 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 09/03 | Newport City FC Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 06/03 | Carmarthen Wales Championship South |
1-2 | 4-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Llanelli Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Trethomas Bluebirds AFC win (50%). Probabilities: Llanelli Town 27%, draw 23%, Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 50%.
How many goals are expected in Llanelli Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?
The model expects 3.86 goals (Llanelli Town 1.63 · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 2.24), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Llanelli Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.