Football · Wales Championship South · 07/08, 20:30
Prediction: Afan Lido vs Llantwit Major
Team pages: Afan Lido
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.57Total
Afan Lido1.78
Llantwit Major1.79
1X2
Afan Lido
Draw
Llantwit Major
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Afan Lido
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Llantwit Major
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Afan Lido
2–4
Llantwit Major
(6 last)
- Afan Lido4-1Llantwit Major
- Llantwit Major1-0Afan Lido
- Llantwit Major1-2Afan Lido
- Llantwit Major2-0Afan Lido
- Afan Lido1-3Llantwit Major
- Llantwit Major1-0Afan Lido
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Afan Lido 1475 · Llantwit Major 1468
| Afan Lido | Draw | Llantwit Major | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| Market | 37% | 25% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Llantwit Major: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Afan Lido | Llantwit Major | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2.2 | 1.7 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.8 | 2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.4 | 4.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Afan Lido 2–0–4 Llantwit Major
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Wales Championship South | Afan Lido | 4-1 HT 0-1 | Llantwit Major |
| 29/11/25 Wales Championship South | Llantwit Major | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Afan Lido |
| 19/07/25 Wales League Cup | Llantwit Major | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Afan Lido |
| 02/11/24 Wales Championship South | Llantwit Major | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Afan Lido |
| 23/08/24 Wales Championship South | Afan Lido | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Llantwit Major |
| 20/01/24 Wales Championship South | Llantwit Major | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Afan Lido |
Standings · Wales Championship South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aberystwyth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Newport City FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Pontardawe Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Pure Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Carmarthen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Pontypridd Utd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Ynyshir Albions | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Baglan Dragons | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Caerau Ely | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 | Treowen Stars | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Cardiff Draconians | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Afan Lido | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 | Llanelli Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 | Caerphilly Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Afan Lido | Llantwit Major |
|---|---|---|
| Aberystwyth | 2-5 L | 2-2 D |
| Cwmbran Celtic | 4-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Treowen Stars | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Cambrian United | 0-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Caerau Ely | 1-4 L | 1-4 L |
| Ammanford AFC | 3-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Afan Lido
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 2-5 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 04/07 | Cardiff MU UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 03/04 | Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/03 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 20/03 | Llantwit Major Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 13/03 | Cambrian United Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 07/03 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/03 | Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
Llantwit Major
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Pure Swansea Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Cambrian United Wales Championship South |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
2-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 20/03 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 14/03 | Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 10/03 | Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 06/03 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 03/03 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 3-2 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 28/02 | Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Afan Lido vs Llantwit Major?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Afan Lido win (38%). Probabilities: Afan Lido 38%, draw 24%, Llantwit Major 38%.
How many goals are expected in Afan Lido vs Llantwit Major?
The model expects 3.57 goals (Afan Lido 1.78 · Llantwit Major 1.79), with a 59% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Afan Lido vs Llantwit Major?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.