Football · Wales Championship South · 01/08, 15:30
Prediction: Afan Lido vs Aberystwyth
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.91Total
Afan Lido1.37
Aberystwyth1.54
1X2
Afan Lido
Draw
Aberystwyth
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Afan Lido
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Aberystwyth
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Afan Lido
1–4
Aberystwyth
(5 last)
- Aberystwyth0-1Afan Lido
- Afan Lido0-1Aberystwyth
- Afan Lido0-1Aberystwyth
- Aberystwyth7-1Afan Lido
- Afan Lido0-6Aberystwyth
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Afan Lido 1500 · Aberystwyth 1452
| Afan Lido | Draw | Aberystwyth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Market | 34% | 25% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Afan Lido (rating 1500 vs 1452).
- H2H favours Aberystwyth: 4-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Afan Lido | Aberystwyth | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.7 | 0.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 3.9 | 2.2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.4 | 4.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Afan Lido 1–0–4 Aberystwyth
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Wales Championship South | Aberystwyth | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Afan Lido |
| 27/09/25 Wales Championship South | Afan Lido | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Aberystwyth |
| 05/08/16 Club Friendly List | Afan Lido | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Aberystwyth |
| 28/03/14 Wales Premier League | Aberystwyth | 7-1 HT 2-0 | Afan Lido |
| 18/02/14 Wales Premier League | Afan Lido | 0-6 HT 0-2 | Aberystwyth |
Standings · Wales Championship South
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aberystwyth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Afan Lido | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Baglan Dragons | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caerau Ely | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caerphilly Athletic FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cardiff Draconians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Carmarthen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Llanelli Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Llantwit Major | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Newport City FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pontardawe Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pontypridd Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Swansea University | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Treowen Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ynyshir Albions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Afan Lido | Aberystwyth |
|---|---|---|
| Cwmbran Celtic | 4-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Treowen Stars | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Llantwit Major | 4-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Cambrian United | 0-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Caerau Ely | 1-4 L | 0-4 L |
| Ammanford AFC | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Afan Lido (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Afan Lido
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Cardiff MU UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 03/04 | Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/03 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 20/03 | Llantwit Major Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 13/03 | Cambrian United Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 07/03 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/03 | Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 20/02 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
Aberystwyth
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | Llantwit Major Wales Championship South |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Cambrian United Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 14/03 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 07/03 | Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 01/03 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 24/02 | Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 14/02 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Afan Lido vs Aberystwyth?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Aberystwyth win (41%). Probabilities: Afan Lido 33%, draw 26%, Aberystwyth 41%.
How many goals are expected in Afan Lido vs Aberystwyth?
The model expects 2.91 goals (Afan Lido 1.37 · Aberystwyth 1.54), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Afan Lido vs Aberystwyth?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.