Football · Wales Championship South · 07/08, 20:45
Prediction: Caerau Ely vs Ynyshir Albions
Team pages: Caerau Ely · Ynyshir Albions
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.96Total
Caerau Ely2.19
Ynyshir Albions0.77
1X2
Caerau Ely
Draw
Ynyshir Albions
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Caerau Ely
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Ynyshir Albions
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Caerau Ely
2–0
Ynyshir Albions
(2 last)
- Caerau Ely2-0Ynyshir Albions
- Ynyshir Albions1-4Caerau Ely
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caerau Ely 1538 · Ynyshir Albions 1497
| Caerau Ely | Draw | Ynyshir Albions | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| Market | 71% | 16% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caerau Ely (rating 1538 vs 1497).
- H2H favours Caerau Ely: 2-0-0.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caerau Ely | Ynyshir Albions | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.1 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 6.9 | 2.8 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caerau Ely 2–0–0 Ynyshir Albions
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Wales Championship South | Caerau Ely | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Ynyshir Albions |
| 26/07/25 Wales Championship South | Ynyshir Albions | 1-4 HT 1-3 | Caerau Ely |
Standings · Wales Championship South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aberystwyth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Newport City FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Pontardawe Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Pure Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Carmarthen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Pontypridd Utd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Ynyshir Albions | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Baglan Dragons | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Caerau Ely | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 | Treowen Stars | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Cardiff Draconians | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Afan Lido | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 | Llanelli Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 | Caerphilly Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Caerau Ely | Ynyshir Albions |
|---|---|---|
| Carmarthen | 3-4 L | 0-0 D |
| Llantwit Major | 4-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Cwmbran Celtic | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Treowen Stars | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caerau Ely
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Carmarthen Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 11/07 | Evesham United Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 30/06 | Cardiff Corinthians AFC UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 18/04 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 04/04 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Llantwit Major Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/03 | Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 1 | D |
| 14/03 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 10/03 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 07/03 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 4-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
Ynyshir Albions
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 04/04 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 28/03 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 24/03 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Carmarthen Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 14/03 | Newport City FC Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/03 | Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 28/02 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 24/02 | Llantwit Major Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caerau Ely vs Ynyshir Albions?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Caerau Ely win (70%). Probabilities: Caerau Ely 70%, draw 18%, Ynyshir Albions 12%.
How many goals are expected in Caerau Ely vs Ynyshir Albions?
The model expects 2.96 goals (Caerau Ely 2.19 · Ynyshir Albions 0.77), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Caerau Ely vs Ynyshir Albions?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.