Football · Wales Championship South · 01/08, 15:30
Prediction: Carmarthen vs Caerau Ely
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.55Total
Carmarthen1.59
Caerau Ely1.96
1X2
Carmarthen
Draw
Caerau Ely
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Carmarthen
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Caerau Ely
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Carmarthen
3–3–0
Caerau Ely
(6 last)
- Caerau Ely3-4Carmarthen
- Carmarthen1-1Caerau Ely
- Carmarthen2-0Caerau Ely
- Caerau Ely2-2Carmarthen
- Carmarthen1-1Caerau Ely
- Caerau Ely2-4Carmarthen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carmarthen 1501 · Caerau Ely 1550
| Carmarthen | Draw | Caerau Ely | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 24% | 46% |
| Market | 30% | 25% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caerau Ely (rating 1501 vs 1550).
- H2H favours Carmarthen: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Carmarthen | Caerau Ely | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 2.3 | 2.2 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.9 | 2.8 / 7.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.2 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carmarthen 3–3–0 Caerau Ely
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 Wales Championship South | Caerau Ely | 3-4 HT 0-0 | Carmarthen |
| 28/11/25 Wales Championship South | Carmarthen | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Caerau Ely |
| 25/01/25 Wales Championship South | Carmarthen | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Caerau Ely |
| 06/08/24 Wales Championship South | Caerau Ely | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Carmarthen |
| 10/02/24 Wales Championship South | Carmarthen | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Caerau Ely |
| 22/09/23 Wales Championship South | Caerau Ely | 2-4 HT 0-3 | Carmarthen |
Standings · Wales Championship South
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aberystwyth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Afan Lido | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Baglan Dragons | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caerau Ely | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caerphilly Athletic FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cardiff Draconians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Carmarthen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Llanelli Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Llantwit Major | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Newport City FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pontardawe Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pontypridd Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Swansea University | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Treowen Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ynyshir Albions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Carmarthen | Caerau Ely |
|---|---|---|
| Treowen Stars | 1-4 L | 3-0 W |
| Pontypridd Utd | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Baglan Dragons | 7-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Ynyshir Albions | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Caerau Ely (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carmarthen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Briton Ferry UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 07/07 | Cardiff MU UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 03/07 | Trefelin BGC UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 4-2 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 18/04 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 28/03 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 7-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 21/03 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 14/03 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
3-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/03 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South |
2-1 | 5-4 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 01/03 | Newport City FC Wales Championship South |
3-1 | 4-4 | 2 | 3 | D |
Caerau Ely
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Evesham United Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 30/06 | Cardiff Corinthians AFC UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 18/04 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 04/04 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Llantwit Major Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/03 | Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 1 | D |
| 14/03 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 10/03 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 07/03 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 4-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 01/03 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carmarthen vs Caerau Ely?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Caerau Ely win (45%). Probabilities: Carmarthen 30%, draw 24%, Caerau Ely 45%.
How many goals are expected in Carmarthen vs Caerau Ely?
The model expects 3.55 goals (Carmarthen 1.59 · Caerau Ely 1.96), with a 58% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Carmarthen vs Caerau Ely?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.