Football · Wales Championship South · 01/08, 15:30

Prediction: Treowen Stars vs Pontypridd Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.61Total

Treowen Stars1.62

Pontypridd Utd1.99

1X2

31% 23% 46%

Treowen Stars Draw Pontypridd Utd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Treowen Stars 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDWWLLLW

Pontypridd Utd 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDWLLWDD

Head-to-head

Treowen Stars 0–2–1 Pontypridd Utd (3 last)

Treowen Stars2-2Pontypridd Utd
Treowen Stars1-1Pontypridd Utd
Pontypridd Utd5-2Treowen Stars

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Treowen Stars 1468 · Pontypridd Utd 1521

	Treowen Stars	Draw	Pontypridd Utd
Our model	31%	23%	46%
Market	31%	23%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.61 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pontypridd Utd (rating 1468 vs 1521).
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Treowen Stars	Pontypridd Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.6	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.2	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.2	1.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.5	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.90

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 1 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.45▼	Pinn 2.56 ★
X	3.90 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	1.95 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:08 +2’	2.88	3.90	1.95
17:20 +3’	2.45▼	3.60▼	2.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:22 +1’	2.56	3.37	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Treowen Stars 0–2–1 Pontypridd Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Wales Championship South	Treowen Stars	2-2 HT 0-2	Pontypridd Utd
22/11/25 Wales Cup	Treowen Stars	1-1 HT 0-1	Pontypridd Utd
03/10/25 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	5-2 HT 2-1	Treowen Stars

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aberystwyth	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Afan Lido	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Baglan Dragons	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Caerau Ely	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Caerphilly Athletic FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cardiff Draconians	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Carmarthen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Llanelli Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Llantwit Major	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newport City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pontardawe Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pontypridd Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Swansea University	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Treowen Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ynyshir Albions	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Treowen Stars	Pontypridd Utd
Carmarthen	4-1 W	1-0 W
Trefelin BGC	0-6 L	1-3 L
Baglan Dragons	4-1 W	2-0 W
Caerau Ely	0-3 L	0-0 D
Llantwit Major	2-3 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Treowen Stars (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Treowen Stars

LDLDWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	4-1	4	5	W
03/04	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	0-3	0-6	2	1	L
28/03	Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South	0-1	1-5	4	7	L
23/03	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
20/03	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	1-1	3-2	5	2	W
17/03	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	6	6	W
14/03	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	2-2	5	8	D
10/03	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-3	0-3	1	6	L
07/03	Cambrian United Wales Championship South	0-0	2-2	4	5	D
03/03	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	0-1	2-3	3	7	L

Pontypridd Utd

WWLDWLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
11/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-0	2-2	2	8	D
04/04	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
27/03	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	1-2	1-3	4	2	L
20/03	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-1	2-4	4	5	L
17/03	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	4-0	5-2	2	5	W
14/03	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	2-0	2-2	3	8	D
06/03	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	0-0	0-4	5	4	L
21/02	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	2-0	8	2	W
14/02	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-1	3-1	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Treowen Stars vs Pontypridd Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pontypridd Utd win (46%). Probabilities: Treowen Stars 31%, draw 23%, Pontypridd Utd 46%.

How many goals are expected in Treowen Stars vs Pontypridd Utd?

The model expects 3.61 goals (Treowen Stars 1.62 · Pontypridd Utd 1.99), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Treowen Stars vs Pontypridd Utd?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.