Football · Wales Championship South · 01/08, 15:30

Prediction: Ynyshir Albions vs Cardiff Draconians

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Ynyshir Albions1.47

Cardiff Draconians1.54

1X2

36% 25% 39%

Ynyshir Albions Draw Cardiff Draconians

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ynyshir Albions 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWWDLDLD

Cardiff Draconians 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLDDW

Head-to-head

Ynyshir Albions 1–1–1 Cardiff Draconians (3 last)

Cardiff Draconians4-1Ynyshir Albions
Ynyshir Albions0-0Cardiff Draconians
Ynyshir Albions4-1Cardiff Draconians

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ynyshir Albions 1463 · Cardiff Draconians 1460

	Ynyshir Albions	Draw	Cardiff Draconians
Our model	35%	26%	38%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ynyshir Albions	Cardiff Draconians
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.8 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.6	1.9 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.75

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.71 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +7’	2.45	3.75	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:22 +1’	2.71	3.52	2.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ynyshir Albions 1–1–1 Cardiff Draconians

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/03/26 Wales Championship South	Cardiff Draconians	4-1 HT 1-0	Ynyshir Albions
11/10/25 Wales Championship South	Ynyshir Albions	0-0 HT 0-0	Cardiff Draconians
19/07/25 Wales League Cup	Ynyshir Albions	4-1 HT 2-0	Cardiff Draconians

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aberystwyth	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Afan Lido	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Baglan Dragons	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Caerau Ely	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Caerphilly Athletic FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cardiff Draconians	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Carmarthen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Llanelli Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Llantwit Major	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Newport City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pontardawe Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pontypridd Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Swansea University	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Treowen Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ynyshir Albions	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ynyshir Albions	Cardiff Draconians
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	2-2 D	4-4 D
Carmarthen	0-0 D	2-3 L
Newport City FC	4-0 W	0-1 L
Treowen Stars	1-1 D	0-1 L
Trefelin BGC	0-2 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Ynyshir Albions (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ynyshir Albions

LLDWWDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/04	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
28/03	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-1	2-2	6	5	D
24/03	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-1	1-4	3	3	L
21/03	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
14/03	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	2-0	4-0	5	3	W
06/03	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	1-1	3-1	5	5	W
28/02	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
24/02	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	2-0	2-3	6	6	L
20/02	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	0-2	0-2	0	5	L

Cardiff Draconians

LLLLLWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	5	W
11/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-1	2-2	4	8	D
04/04	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-2	4-4	3	4	D
28/03	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
24/03	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-0	4-1	4	3	W
21/03	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	0	2	L
14/03	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	2-3	2-3	8	3	L
06/03	Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South	0-1	1-2	10	7	L
04/03	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	1-2	1-3	4	4	L
21/02	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ynyshir Albions vs Cardiff Draconians?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cardiff Draconians win (39%). Probabilities: Ynyshir Albions 36%, draw 25%, Cardiff Draconians 39%.

How many goals are expected in Ynyshir Albions vs Cardiff Draconians?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Ynyshir Albions 1.47 · Cardiff Draconians 1.54), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ynyshir Albions vs Cardiff Draconians?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.