Football · Wales Championship South · 31/07, 20:30
Prediction: Llanelli Town vs Newport City FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.35Total
Llanelli Town1.66
Newport City FC1.69
1X2
Llanelli Town
Draw
Newport City FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Llanelli Town
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Newport City FC
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Llanelli Town
1–1
Newport City FC
(2 last)
- Newport City FC1-2Llanelli Town
- Llanelli Town2-3Newport City FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Llanelli Town 1417 · Newport City FC 1408
| Llanelli Town | Draw | Newport City FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Llanelli Town | Newport City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 2.8 | 0.8 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1.5 | 0.3 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/10/70% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 2.4 | 3.5 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Llanelli Town 1–0–1 Newport City FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/25 Wales Championship South | Newport City FC | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Llanelli Town |
| 04/10/24 Wales Championship South | Llanelli Town | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Newport City FC |
Standings · Wales Championship South
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aberystwyth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Afan Lido | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Baglan Dragons | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caerau Ely | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caerphilly Athletic FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cardiff Draconians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Carmarthen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Llanelli Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Llantwit Major | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Newport City FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pontardawe Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pontypridd Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Swansea University | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Treowen Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ynyshir Albions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Llanelli Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Haverfordwest County UK Friendlies |
0-6 | 0-8 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | Bala Town Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/03 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 13/03 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 27/02 | Bala Town Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 20/02 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 13/02 | Cardiff MU Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 07/02 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
Newport City FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Newport County UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-5 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 26/06 | Cambrian United UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South |
0-3 | 0-5 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 03/04 | Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 28/03 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 20/03 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/03 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 09/03 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 06/03 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 1-2 | 15 | 3 | L |
| 01/03 | Carmarthen Wales Championship South |
1-3 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Llanelli Town vs Newport City FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Newport City FC win (38%). Probabilities: Llanelli Town 36%, draw 26%, Newport City FC 38%.
How many goals are expected in Llanelli Town vs Newport City FC?
The model expects 3.35 goals (Llanelli Town 1.66 · Newport City FC 1.69), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Llanelli Town vs Newport City FC?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.